Tampa Bay home sales end 8 month lucky streak

Tampa Bay area home sales slipped 1 percent in May, snapping a trend of 8 straight months of rising home sales.

According to the Florida Association of Realtors, sales totaled 2,243 in May, 27 fewer than the 2,270 sales recorded in May 2008.

But home prices, while down 20 percent from a year earlier, marked their highest level so far in 2009. The region's median sales price was $141,100 in May, up from $135,200 in April.

Overall sales in Florida rose 16 percent year over year, from 12,044 to 13,921. Prices statewide declined 29 percent, from $203,800 last year to $144,400 this May.

Sales seemed to suffer in late May for two reasons. Mortgage rates began to rise after scraping new lows in April and early May. Home loans available for 4.6 percent in April rose to 5.7 percent in late May.

What's more, foreclosure sales, which have accounted for about half of all transactions in previous months, have begun to weigh on housing appraisals. Banks are wary of over-lending when appraisals come in so low.

Since Pinellas and Hillsborough county Realtors reported a modest rise in home sales in May, I assume sales were correspondingly weak in Pasco and Hernando counties. Those four counties make up the Tampa Bay metro area.

Comments

[Frank Lee]

37 less sales and 4.2% price increase. "Flat". The "L" continues...

[Fuzzy Bear]

No surprise!

You can attibute the decline due to rising interest rates, but other economic factors such as oil/gas, high unemployment, etc. play a significant factor.

Home values are not increasing as some seem to think. The L recovery could easily become a W if certain economic conditions continue followed then by the L.

[Tino]

Any one month change is not a trend, and the realtors do not measure the level of home prices. They measure the median house that sold in that particular month.

For the mathematical difference, see http://blogs.tampabay.com/realestate/2009/05/tampa-home-prices-could-be-stabilizing-as-long-as-the-homes-not-in-foreclosure.html?cid=6a00d83451b05569e201156fa9cff0970c#comment-6a00d83451b05569e201156fa9cff0970c

We shall get a view of the actual pricing index trends on June 30 at 9 am.

[Fuzzy Bear]

"We shall get a view of the actual pricing index trends on June 30 at 9 am."

That will be interesting as I believe is is still trending downwards. The VIX has been trending upwards and that is not good.

[Tino]

Wow -- it's almost like the Wall Street Journal reads my comments on this real estate blog:

JUNE 23, 2009
Housing Statistics Need Closer Inspection

Those seeking a home-price bottom should beware that price gauges can send false signals.

On Tuesday, the National Association of Realtors releases May home-resale data. Economists expect an annualized sales pace of 4.8 million units, down 33% from May 2005, near the bubble's peak.

Wednesday brings Commerce Department data on May new-home sales, and economists see an annualized pace of 360,000 units, down 72% from May 2005.

Both reports will include pricing information, helpful for seeing how much pain homeowners have suffered and how much more banks will lose on their mortgage-backed securities.

Happy pricing news has been scarce. Median new-home prices fell 14.9% in April from a year ago, nearly matching the worst decline of the housing bust.

Things have been slightly more promising for existing homes, where median single-family home prices also fell 14.9% in April, an improvement over January's record 16.7% decline.

Alas, that small uptick was merely "noise," says NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun, who wants to see three more such months before declaring price stabilization. Even then, Mr. Yun warns, investors shouldn't assume that home prices are rising broadly.

The trouble, notes Ivy Zelman, chief executive of housing research firm Zelman & Associates, is the NAR's sample will increasingly include more-upscale homes as a glut of distressed, low-priced houses leaves the market.

Lately, as much as 50% of home resales have been foreclosures, and most have been lower-priced homes.

Now the foreclosure vortex is gripping higher-priced homes. A house that sold for $600,000 during the boom and $400,000 in foreclosure will be recorded by the NAR as a $400,000 sale, lifting the national median but suggesting no real improvement in housing.

"It will be very difficult for investors watching the median existing-home price to realize it could be masking deflation at higher parts of the housing food chain," says Ms. Zelman.

The Standard & Poor's Case-Shiller price indexes, updates of which are due next week, have their own issues, but track repeat sales of the same house and might better reflect the true losses of banks, mortgage companies and homeowners.

[Fuzzy Bear]

"Housing Statistics Need Closer Inspection"

Good information Tino! The problem that I have seen in the past and present is that information released by special interst groups often mislead the unsuspecting consumer who does not do their research or verify the information is correct.

[Jim Deitch]

Tino/Fuzzy Bear,

It is also good to view 12 month rolling averages when assessing the trends. Keep in mind home buying still is seasonal and is returning to a more traditional seasonal purchase cycle so there can be clues in not only month over month but also in looking at May '09 over May '08. We have seen the down tick in actual traffic units this month already so Fuzzy's comment about the possibility of a W before the L trend may be on the money. Maybe not a full drop but a drop all the same. That being said while sales have dropped off, pricing has leveled and started to rise, if only slightly.

Jim Deitch
Chief Operating Officer
Southern Crafted Homes

[Tino]

Mr. Deitch,

I agree that anecdotal info, such as what similar homes in your communities are selling for, is valuable info, because it is a true apples-to-apples comparison over time.

That's my beef with the NAR data -- it is based on the price AND the mix of homes that sold in that particular period. As an extreme case, if NAR released the price data of homes that closed every day, you would see "prices" changing at a rate of 10-50% per day.

[Frank Lee]

So far, the Hillsborough stats for June continue with a mid-130's median. Last June and July saw spikes, so the year-to-year comparisons (mentioned in a previous post) will likely be touted by the grave dancers. Regardless, the "L" pricing (when stats verify) will have gone on for a full six months.

[Fuzzy Bear]

"It is also good to view 12 month rolling averages when assessing the trends."

A good source for that data comes from the Case-Shiller reports.

[Tino]

"We shall get a view of the actual pricing index trends on June 30 at 9 am."

It's out: Tampa prices down for the 33rd month in a row. Miami prices are in complete free-fall, down over 31% in the past year.

[Frank Lee]

Condo sales??

Those were up 17% year-to-year with pricing down 27% year-to-year, yet up over 10% from April '09. Sales volume was up 2.4% over April.

http://media.living.net/statistics/statisticsfull.htm

I believe local Realtors include condos when mentioning "homes" in their media reporting. If they separate statistics, they use the "single family" designate - much like FAR. When reporting between the two entities, using "homes" for both leaves room for misinterpreted ambiguity.

[Frank Lee]

For those of you that are actually interested in the Miami condo market, year-to-year sales are UP by double due to the low prices. Year-to-year comparisons have pricing down by almost half. Month-to-month comparisons are another story...pricing is up over April. The same link above provides that information.

Locals cite the increased buying due to foreign interests. Weak dollar, cheap pricing, "desirable" location, etc...

[Frank Lee]

GTAR's June figures are out, and better than I expected.

Sales volume = 1,714 homes.
- 19% jump over last month's 1,440 sales.
- 18.7% jump over June '08's 1,394 sales.
- The last time volume was this high = 4Q 2006.

Avg. Price = $173,544.
- Up 4.7% over last month.
- Down 23.7% from June '08.
- Last month's year-to-year declination rate was 32.5%.

Perhaps the most shocking news is the reduction in inventory...now down to 14,300 - almost 1,000 less than last month and showing 8.33 month's worth.
- A figure not seen since Summer 2006.

In all, "good news". Factors to consider are seasonality, jobs, inventory and foreclosures.

According to the Hillsborough County Records, those dropped again in June due to increased releases. Still, the figures are very high, but heading in a better direction.

Jobs are still one of my major concerns, with little insight given on future expectations.

Seasonality had better than expected results.

Inventory had better than expected results - hit with reductions and higher than expected sales.

I'm not going to use the "cautiously optimistic" term...opting for "let's look again in a couple of months" for any *real* trends.