Wachovia + Florida = Not a Lot of Love

Wachovia Bank has put out an economic report for Florida that has few kinds words for our housing industry. Economists assume our recession will linger longer than the national recession. Thanks, fellas. A snippet:

Florida faces an even more difficult road to recovery. The Sunshine State went into recession a full nine months ahead of the nation, and excesses in housing and commercial real estate are considerably worse than the nation as a whole.

The housing bust is clearly Florida’s largest immediate problem. Single-family housing is extremely overbuilt, particularly along Florida’s central Atlantic coast, in southwestern Florida, in central Florida, in the outlying areas around Orlando and in many other of the outlying areas around the state’s other major employment centers. Permits for new single-family homes have tumbled 90 percent from their peaks nearly four years ago and the inventory of vacant, developed lots remains excessive throughout much of the state.

Page 20 of the report includes a take on Tampa Bay. It's none too pretty here either:

The Tampa-St. Petersburg metropolitan area has been hit especially hard by this downturn. Tampa had seen some of the strongest growth during the expansion, and home building and home prices rose much more than the underlying demographics support. The problem was most acute to the north of Tampa, in Pasco and Citrus counties. Both areas now boast significant supplies of vacant developed lots and have seen home prices and lot values collapse in recent years.

Tampa’s hard landing is somewhat surprising given the diversity of the local economy. The housing boom proved to be too large, however, with prices soaring 70 percent between 2002 and 2006. The unwinding from this boom is dragging down the entire economy. Home prices have plummeted 42 percent over the past three years. Home construction has plummeted more than 90 percent from the peaks reached three years ago.

Comments

[Tino]

Add one more name to Mr. Lee's list of "liars with an agenda"...

[Frank Lee]

Tino, your pathetic badgering only bolsters your negativity case.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Frank says: "Tino, your pathetic badgering only bolsters your negativity case."

Read your own words Frank as you put yourself in this position by your own attacks on others who you disagree with in your posts! It's time to put this behind and focus on the topics and not the person and or their comments!

[Fuzzy Bear]

"The housing boom proved to be too large, however, with prices soaring 70 percent between 2002 and 2006."

In my opinion, a 50-53% decline in the values of homes that shot up during this period would bring values closer to the long term rate. We are getting closer, but still have a ways to go before the bottom is reached in property values.

[Frank Lee]

But Fuzzy, *you* attack *anyone* that posts anything contrary to you and the Negativity Cronies. If there's any hypocrisy going 'round, it's certainly you, your attacks, and "don't comment about me, when I comment about you" tactics. - that and the cyberbullying and privacy threats.

You should adhere to your own advice.

-----

I only have one issue with the article...

Did Thorner mention that failing Wach'all'ovia was recently purchased by Wells Fargo, and that they are now attempting to justify stalling repayment of [sic] "bailout" funds?

Timing IS everything, you know.

[Rob]

Frank's rude, crass, and otherwise juvenile behavior reminds me of something my father used to say.
"we would all be far more polite if we all carried swords"
Long ago Frank would have been called out and his uncivilized behavior ended, unless he had skills-then of course he would not have been rude in the first place.

[Frank Lee]

"Rob", the Spanish Inquisition has been over for quite some time. Grow up and write something insightful....but try to keep it truthful this time.

[Rob]

Another insight from my father.
"If everyone says you are a jerk, chances are you are in FACT a jerk."

Nothing I have ever posted was false. You can nit pick all you'd like, but there a multitude of situations that are possible-even if you think they are improbable. Your BELIEFS are what you have in the absence of FACT.

[Paradigm Shift]

Some positive news but it looks like mortgage rate averages are tranding back down after several weeks of growth from mid 4's to high 5's.

http://www.zillow.com/Mortgage_Rates/

Just Thursday last week rates were at near 5.8's.. today down to 5.4's .

If these numbers get back down to the 4's it can only help move the RE market!

[Frank Lee]

Rob,

Must you continue your WWF tirade? Your rental example was shabby and far from realistic. I'm not the only poster to question your parameters, so I guess everyone here is a jerk? If you love renting, great - keep renting. Your landlord loves you. That makes at least two people.

[Fuzzy Bear]

"But Fuzzy, *you* attack *anyone* that posts anything contrary to you and the Negativity Cronies."

I am taking my own advice and you should do the same! Time to stop the games Frank and respond like an ethical and professional person!

[Fuzzy Bear]

Frank Says: "But Fuzzy, *you* attack *anyone* that posts anything contrary to you and the Negativity Cronies."

Frank: Read your own mention above, does that look like a comment from a person who is ethical and professional?

[Frank Lee]

Nothing funnier than a "discredited alias" in a "begging the question" fallacy. Thanks again for the entertainment, Fuzz.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Frank Says: "Nothing funnier than a "discredited alias" in a "begging the question" fallacy. Thanks again for the entertainment, Fuzz."

It is clear that you simply cannot act like an adult and comment in a professional and ethical manner! Your a perfect example of what is wrong with people in America!

[Dave]

I've been following this blog for quite some time and it appears to me that the "Frank Lee" poster is likely one of two things:
1. A teenager prankster posing as a realtor. Some kids love to antagonize people while trying to appear as an adult.
2. A paid "plant" that is used to stir up controversy on a blog in order to get more views?

[Frank Lee]

I've been following this blog for a while too, "Dave" and I can say that you've written nothing but "look at Frank" posts the entire time...much like "Grant".

If you think I'm on Thorner's/Poynter's payroll, that's another GREAT piece of entertainment. Keep fishing...I'll keep debunking.

No comments on Wells Fargo keeping your tax dollars?

[Ray]

That is funny Dave. Sounds like this Frank person is some sort of psycho/nutcase that gets their jollies off with the rude comments. Everyone should just ignore this pathetic nutcase.

[Jim Deitch]

Getting back to the subject of the actual article for a moment, Wachovia's report is in some places accurate and in others flawed. Citrus County aside (it will take decades for the abundance of vacant developed lots to be burned through), Pasco County was on a well thought out and sustainable growth plan until the housing boom escalated to unthinkable levels. During the boom major communities with thousands of homesites were planned and are still on the table. Large swaths of former ranchland has been sliced up and fought over. What is left are incomplete communities with bankrupt homebuilders and in some cases bankrupt land developers. Expect more news on that soon. That being said Pasco County will continue to grow and we have already seen positive signs with the expansion of USAA, the imminent decisions on T. Rowe Price and other business relocations and expansions. The positive side of this is the curtailment of new projects, the stalling of massive projects such as Wiregrass, and the departure of the national builders from Pasco County. In some cases price decreases have helped facilitate an earlier departure for several nationals. This all will serve to normalize the market and get us to a pricing model that makes sense and is fair to both builders and homebuyers. That being said I fear we are faced with another round of foreclosures that could set us back again despite recent gains in new and existing home sales.

Respectfully submitted,

Jim Deitch
Chief Operating Officer
Southern Crafted Homes

[Frank Lee]

Citrus has an enormous amount of potential and actual vacant homes. Part of their current lot problem, however, stems from a ruling in the 90's prohibiting the subdividing of less than 20 acres. Naturally, developers and other speculative holders chopped-'til-they-dropped to beat the deadline.

[Jim Deitch]

There are a multitude of reasons for the vast amount of vacant lots and entitled communities there. The lure of low taxes and living expenses has all but evaporated for retirees choosing to move to Florida. Although the perception of that lure was very much skewed. (Only 4% of retirees moved to Florida during the boom years). Del Webb (a subsidiary of Pulte Homes) realized this early on and created the first Sun City outside of the Sun Belt in suburban Chicago. WCI most recently expanded their retiree communities in an acquisition in New Jersey. Without the lure of a significant urban center or other attraction (the new nuclear facility aside) there is not much that will draw people there with fuel costs the way they are and no transportation system.

Jim Deitch
Chief Operating Officer
Southern Crafted Homes

[Citruspropertyowner]

Frank Lee:
Another problem in Citrus is major arteries are non existent heading toward major metro areas. The Suncoast Pkwy2
has been tabled until more financing comes around from the DOT via the state.

No one wants to live somewhere where they cannot get to a major metropolitan area in less than an hour....Tampa.

So unless they start to re invest in the highway there will not be any growth in Citrus for a very long time despite its "potential".

[Frank Lee]

CPO,

I didn't write that Citrus has a lot of potential (for growth). I wrote that they have a lot of potential and actual vacant homes (*inventory*). We've been owners up there since the early 70's and seen it go from a quaint "old Florida" fishing/diving community to, well, what you have today. With the amount of existing inventory and suffocating overhead (mentioned by Mr. Deitch), as well as available "commuter inventory" already located in Pasco and Hernando, Citrus has a long wait. Sure, extending the parkway has a multitude of benefits - especially unclogging HWY19 locally. I'm certainly for *that*! A large infrastructure project would also be great for the economy. I think the bedroom demand for Tampa commuters, however, is perhaps another decade or so away. (of course, if it takes them 10 years to build the thing, they should get started now, right?)