Case-Shiller flags monthly home price rise in Tampa Bay

The S&P Case Shiller home price index continues to show rising prices in much of the country, including Tampa Bay.

Tampa Bay prices rose 0.4 percent between July and August, though they were down about 17 percent year over year.

Case Shiller's numbers come out a month after Realtors' numbers, though their prices changes correspond pretty well.

As I've been saying for months, I strongly suspect January's home prices, when the median was about $122,000 coming off last fall's near financial collapse, represents our low point.

More price volatility is ahead  --- Realtors already reported a home value decline in September --- but it's doubtful they'll dip below $120,000.

If you click on the link above, note how well California is doing, relatively speaking. That state is often a leading indicator, for good and for bad.

But as I learned last week at a home builder Web-conference, California didn't have our home building explosion and home buyer incomes are higher than ours. We remain terribly overbuilt as a state, although Tampa Bay isn't the worst off.

Comments

[Fuzzy Bear]

"although Tampa Bay isn't the worst off."

The Tampa Bay area is the fifth worst city of the 20 cities listed in the index. Being down 17.7 percent year over last year is still bad, but it does show some improvement even though it is very slight. However, the latest foreclosures are simply replacing the units sold.

[Tino]

The "low point" will be dependent on the level of welfare the government throws at low-income buyers to prop up this deteriorating market.

If Congress decides to give our children and grandchildren a break and end this farce, we will see new lows.

I anticipate that this giveaway will eventually make it onto the 1040 as a permanent socialist wealth transfer.

[Frank Lee]

"Case Shiller's numbers come out a month after Realtors' numbers..."

Shiller's numbers operate with a two month lag...

"Data presented in the spreadsheets above are calculated monthly using a three-month moving average and published with a two month lag. New index levels are released at 9 am on the last Tuesday of every month."

http://www2.standardandpoors.com/portal/site/sp/en/us/page.topic/indices_csmahp/0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,1,0,0,0,0,0.html

FYI, The Florida Association of Realtors (FAR) reports with a three week lag.
http://media.living.net/statisticsSchedule.htm

...And GTAR (Greater Tampa Association of Realtors) reports typically within 7-12 days.
http://www.gtar.org/MarketStats/2009MarketStats.aspx

I found this blanket statement from Shiller uplifting:

"This marks approximately seven months of improved readings in these statistics, beginning in early 2009."

[Bridget]

Wow! It sure seems like negative news is the only kind that the St. Pete think sells papers. Here we get a bit of good news on The Tampa Bay Housing Market and you almost negate it in the first line. "Tampa Bay prices rose 0.4 percent between July and August, though they were down about 17 percent year over year." I think you & many of the other articles in the St. Pete Times are directly contributing to keeping thousands of ready & able Buyers on the sidelines with your continuous negative spin on even the good news. Maybe it sells more papers (if it bleeds it leads), but it sure has me considering cancelling my subscription to the Times.

[James Thorner]

Bridget, Realtors already reported that Tampa Bay home prices fell nearly 5 percent from August to September. I didn't make a big deal of that in my story, assuming one month's report doesn't a trend make. So you can understand why I also wouldn't get too excited about a 0.4 percent price rise in August, knowing what I already know about September. I've published a dozen stories/blog items that suggest prices have stabilized since February. I suspect people are sitting on the sidelines because of high unemployment and hard-to-get loans, not my scribbling.

[Tino]

Bridget, you are going to cancel your subscription because housing prices keep falling?

At least you picked a good reason to do so.

[Fuzzy Bear]

"I suspect people are sitting on the sidelines because of high unemployment and hard-to-get loans, not my scribbling."

I would agree 100% with the above mention.

In addition to the above mention, nearly 50% of homeowners in the Tampa Bay area are upside down and therefore owe more than what their property is worth. That makes it very difficult or nearly impossible for these people to upgrade as they are trapped.

The conventional loans require 20% down and the majority of first time and secondary home buyers do not have the down payments required. To further complicate this matter, wages in the area have dropped or have been been frozen for the past couple of years.