Tampa Bay's stock is rising. Unfortunately we're talking about stock of foreclosure homes

The volume of foreclosure cases in Tampa Bay and Florida continued to grow in September, measured both annually and monthly. According to First American CoreLogic, 8.82 percent of Tampa Bay mortgages are under a foreclosure cloud. That's up from 8.58 percent in August.

The default pipeline is also getting more jammed. First American said 14.34 percent of Tampa Bay mortgages were 90 or more days late in September, up from 13.98 percent in August.

As you can see in the chart below, the year-to-year increases are even more dramatic, though it's worse in the rest of Florida.

Location	90+ Day Delinquency Rate September 2009	90+ Day Delinquency Rate September 2008		Foreclosure Rate September 2009	Foreclosure Rate September 2008	Change in Foreclosure Rate	REO Rate September 2009	REO Rate September 2008	Percentage Point Change in REO Rate
Florida	16.76%	9.09%		10.24%	5.55%	4.69%	0.65%	0.84%	-0.19%
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL	14.34%	7.91%		8.82%	4.93%	3.89%	0.40%	0.58%	-0.18%
US	7.27%	4.38%		2.93%	1.67%	1.25%	0.46%	0.81%	-0.35%

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Comments

[Tino]

It's like a broken record:

1. the foreclosure and delinquency rates increase
2. Tino pops in to make a snarky comment
3. Frank Lee comes in to deny increases, provides some odd logic showing the numbers are actually going down, calls everyone associated with the statistics corrupt and on the take
4. everyone mocks Mr. Lee until the following month
5. Go to #1.

[Frank Lee]

Those probably aren't foreclosure rates, Tino. Those are likely Lis Pendens filing rates without factoring releases. Since James Thorner didn't post any disclaimers or links, that kind of reporting is haphazard at best. I would say "how you can continually and purposely misrepresent plain statistics is beyond me", however, I think your motives are well displayed.

I found THIS article by Thorner's colleagues, published over this past weekend, quite uplifting even though the news was sinister.
http://www.tampabay.com/news/foreclosure-crisis-caused-by-investors-and-lenders-and-politicians-and/1049903

Sure, the news is not good, but at least THEY know how to do some hard diligence. And, guess what they uncovered?

If you bothered reading the entire article, you would have discovered these juicy bits:

"The Times obtained electronic records from the (Hillsborough) county's Clerk of Courts Office of more than 30,000 foreclosure filings from 2007 to 2009."

>>>>Two Years - just over 30,000 records (aka New Lis Pendens Filings...again no releases). That sounds about right to me...but wait a minute...

"That produced a list of 11,967 residential properties. The other records were commercial properties or duplicates. Some could not be matched."

>>>>And now you know why third-party reports are shoddy, sensationalist tripe.

Many thanks to Michael Van Sickler, Marlene Sokol and John Martin of the Times.

[James Thorner]

Frank, we reporters work together here to cover the angles. I grind out daily stuff, in the paper and on the blog. It's not supposed to be the Ten Commandments hewn in Sinai granite. That team you cite worked at least 8 months putting neighborhoods under a microscope. They did great work, but obviously we can't wait 8 months between blog postings, until we've done due diligence on every speck of info. I believe that publishing information in volume from multiple sources is useful. I try to place that information in context - to localize it - but readers have to apply those facts to their own lives. Some are buyers, some are sellers, some are Realtors, some are retirees, some are investors, etc.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Frank Says: "Since James Thorner didn't post any disclaimers or links, that kind of reporting is haphazard at best."

Does it really matter when more than 80% of properties that begin the foreclosure process end up foreclosed?

What is clear is you just do not understand the foreclosure process!

[Fuzzy Bear]

Tino: I modified your five steps from a different angle:

1. the foreclosure and delinquency rates increase
2. Tino pops in to make a snarky comment
3. Frank Lee comes in to deny increases, provides some odd logic showing the numbers are actually going down, calls everyone associated with the statistics corrupt and on the take
4. Frank Lee makes personal attacks on Tino and Fuzzy Bear.
5. Frank Lee whines to Mr. Thorner that Tino and Fuzzy Bear are cyberbullying him.
6. everyone mocks Mr. Lee until the following month
7. Frank Lee turns out to be incorrect and just does not get the facts correct.
8. Go to #1.

[Tino]

"Those probably aren't foreclosure rates, Tino. Those are likely Lis Pendens filing rates without factoring releases."

Okay, I will agree with you on one nomenclature point, Frank. You refer to a "foreclosure" as a property that has wound its way through the entire process and is sold at the courthouse in an auction. At that point you call it a "foreclosure". While technically the auction is a "foreclosure auction", what do you call the tens of thousands of cases that have ACTIVE lis pendens filings and are waiting to be sold? Everyone but you would refer to thse properties as "in the foreclosure queue".

Perhaps the nomenclature of the "Foreclosure Rate" term should be relabeled "Foreclosure Filing Rate". It has to be net of releases, though, because once a property is current (either by auction or by the owner making payments), it doesn't count as anything. It's no longer a problem and is not in the system.

Mr. Thorner got it right: "8.82 percent of Tampa Bay mortgages are under a foreclosure cloud."

You can't deny that. A property in the foreclosure queue is definitely under a dark cloud.

[Frank Lee]

Mr. Thorner, the debate is not who works the hardest or the longest. This particular debate is on accurate statistical representation. Are you SURE that FACL report above only covers HOMES?

----

Tino,

Again, nobody is trying to say there isn't a foreclosure problem. The debate here is the *accuracy in representation* of this problem.

First, let me address your definitions above...

A "foreclosure" as defined just about everywhere else but this blog is a property that has *concluded* the process (title retained by mortgage lender). Anything in between ("in process") is popularly titled as a "pre-foreclosure".

Second...

"Everyone but you would refer to thse properties as "in the foreclosure queue""

And a Hillsborough County Records manager...

She wrote that there wasn't a hearing queue because of the way the process works.

I'm reading stories in which mortgage lenders have streamlined their litigation process to the point of getting a lis pendens filed when the borrower hits 30 days late. The norm used to be 90 days. I imagine a certain few individuals that historically played with the grace period are now adding to the fray. Regardless, once a lis pendens is filed you have a property "in process" aka a pre-foreclosure. What happens next is anybody's guess. Properties don't enter a hearing queue because they aren't brought to trial by picking a number in a deli line. They are assigned to a judge and heard on a case-by-case basis depending on a myriad of variables: Party schedules, title claimant formalities, interim payments, litigation practices (an attorney could outlay these better), case loads, etc. And that's if the case even makes it to their desk. Do yourself a HUGE favor, send a simple email to the Records Manager and ask "how many foreclosure cases are currently in your foreclosure queue?" and carefully consider the response.

Last...

Consider the question I asked James Thorner above. When these third parties spew out a generalized report, consider exactly WHAT those numbers represent. His colleagues did an excellent job exposing the fact that, in Hillsborough County, only an approximate THIRD of all the lis pendens filings over the past two years were residential. The rest were commercial, duplicates, or didn't match. It's commonly accepted in economic terms that commercial trends typically lag the residential. So, what's the ratio these days? What's the trend?

Just because the raw stats make a directional change doesn't mean that one particular sector ("homes") followed suit. We need the WHOLE story, not third-party potshot trolling.

[Tino]

I'm not quite sure you know what a "queue" is. Here's a definition:

http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/queue

Also, I'm not sure you know what the definition of "foreclosure" is:

http://www.investorwords.com/2039/foreclosure.html

It is the entire process, not just the auction, in the same way that death row is not just merely an execution.

I refer to a "foreclosure queue" as properties that are in line within the entire foreclosure process.

See? queue = line.

So does the First American CoreLogic "foreclosure rate" in the original post equal to the Frank Lee "pre-foreclosure queue", or what I refer to as the "foreclosure (process) queue"?

As James said, "8.82 percent of Tampa Bay mortgages are under a foreclosure cloud." I'm not quite sure why you continue to fight this concept for so long. What term SHOULD we use to refer to those 8.82% of homes, or do they not even exist?

[Fuzzy Bear]

"Just because the raw stats make a directional change doesn't mean that one particular sector ("homes") followed suit."

Simply not True!

There really is not much to debate when the majority of properties that enter the foreclosure process end up being bank owned properties. In fact, the majority of properties whereas the mortgage was modified have ended up as bank owned properties.

Secondly, it has been proven over and over again that commercial RE follows the same path as that of residential properties. In this recession, it is becoming clear that commercial RE is following the same path.

[Frank Lee]

I'm reminded of that Three Stooges skit...step by step, inch by inch....

Tino, that's an excellent definition of "queue", but the foreclosure process is not a "line". Understand? Perhaps you skipped that entire paragraph explaining how cases are handled? Constantly repeating "queue" is not going to make your version of the process correct.

You also keep inferring that 8.82% is "homes", so try and answer Thorner's question for him...
Is the entirety of that 8.82% "homes"?

---

Fuzzy, you've done an excellent job in redundantly posting statistics without verifiable proof from respectable sources....

Point #1: You claim: "the majority of properties that enter the foreclosure process end up being bank owned properties."

In the context of Hillsborough County (since Thorner is promoting "localism"), please provide verifiable proof to substantiate your claim. I contend you are not factoring releases via payments, bankruptcies, straight sales or short sales. Show me a reputable link where over 50% Hillsborough County's lis pendens filings become REOs. I'll keep an open mind.

Point #2: You claim: " it has been proven over and over again that commercial RE follows the same path as that of residential properties"

This statement is off-topic. We are debating the importance of ratios and categorical starting places, not lagging indicators. To regard the importance of the ratios, you should analyze the following:

First, you must agree with Thorner's colleague's information. They wrote that only an approximate THIRD of all lis pendens filings (2007-2009 Hillsborough County) were residential. I find this completely plausible given my own diligence with the county.

Second, the rest were an undefined mixture including commercial, unmatched, and duplicates. So, by your argument, these ratios never change and don't matter? We'll have an irreconcilable difference of opinion if that's the case.

[Tino]

"Show me a reputable link where over 50% Hillsborough County's lis pendens filings become REOs."

Let's turn this around: do you actually beleive that a majority of people that go into default on their mortgages in 2009 will be able to pay them off?

That kind of denial is ostrich-like. In the monthly stats, I see over 10 new lis pendens for every one that is released from paying it off.

"the foreclosure process is not a "line". Understand?"

So....you are saying that if I foreclose on someone I can have the property auctioned in a week? I think that you should give up real estate and be an attorney. You could make a lot of money without having to rob old ladies for 7%.

Or could there be tens of thousands of properties lined up in front of me in the court system?

[Fuzzy Bear]

Frank says: "Fuzzy, you've done an excellent job in redundantly posting statistics without verifiable proof from respectable sources...."

What is your problem Frank? Are you just mad at everyone that disputes the dung you post on this site.

You are always asking for myself and others to provide you links to everything you dispute. I think you are just too lazy to do the research as you simply do not understand economics let alone the Tampa RE market!

Instead of doing your homework Frank Lee, all you do is whine and complain that people are being cyberbullies to Mr. Thorner.

Get off your lazy butt and do some basic research for a change or zip it!!!

[Fuzzy Bear]

Frank Says: "In the context of Hillsborough County (since Thorner is promoting "localism"), please provide verifiable proof to substantiate your claim."

Why don't you talk to your own realtor association, the NAR as they do not dispute the claim. Better yet, pay for the research and you will get your answer! In the meantime, do some basic research and learn more about economics in the housing sector and you might understand the economics behind this housing crash and the impact on commercial RE.

In otherwords, spend less time as a whiner and more time doing your homework instead of making a fool of yourself! I have no time for crybabys or whiners like you Frank Lee!

[Fuzzy Bear]

Here is one for our resident angerball/whiner Frank Lee. Frank is always asking for proof as she just does not know how to read and do basic economic research on the RE market!

Sounds like Frank Lee missed it again in terms of commercial RE!!! How many times must we keep proving your incorrect Frank Lee?

http://www.cnbc.com/id/33857522

[Frank Lee]

All these posts and still no proof.

Let's keep it simple:

Tino/Thorner: Is the entirety of that 8.82% "homes"?

Fuzzy:
A) Where's your reputable link verifying the 50%+?
B) Are you saying the ratios of commercial, residential, duplicates and unmatched filings don't matter?

[Fuzzy Bear]

Frank Says: "Fuzzy:
A) Where's your reputable link verifying the 50%+?
B) Are you saying the ratios of commercial, residential, duplicates and unmatched filings don't matter?"

How many times do I have to tell you Frank Lee, you do your own research as we do not provide our research for individual realtors such as you. This site is not the forum to post multiple pages of research material and our links are not available to the public.

Our research has been in some articles, but it won't be available to whiners like you! Do you understand Frank Lee?

[Frank Lee]

Fuzz, you can't blurt stats and hide behind some phantom company when someone calls your bluff. Please don't embarrass yourself with this nonsense. The burden of proof is yours and yours alone.

Don't forget you have TWO questions.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Frank Says: "Fuzz, you can't blurt stats and hide behind some phantom company when someone calls your bluff. Please don't embarrass yourself with this nonsense. The burden of proof is yours and yours alone."

Prove me wrong for a change Frank or is it that all you can produce is your dung based garbage you put in your replies?

As for a reply to you Frank Lee, I see no point providing you ANY information as you just can't quote me correctly let alone discuss or debate issues in a professional and ethical manner!

Your garbage and dung in your reply regarding ""Fuzz, you can't blurt stats and hide behind some phantom company when someone calls your bluff."
says volumes about your ability to conduct yourself as a professional and ethical business person Frank Lee.

In fact, you do not know me let alone which firm I work for now do you? Just keep making things up Frank Lee, that is all you know how to do on this site as you certainly do not know the facts behind the RE market!

Now run off and whine and cry to Mr. Thorner!