Will Tampa Bay home prices rise 5.6 percent by Sepember 2010?
First American CoreLogic is upbeat about Tampa Bay home prices. The real estate company predicts Tampa Bay appreciation of 5.56 percent between September 2009 and September 2010.
Most of that price growth will occur in the spring and summer of 2010, the company said. Short term, depreciation is the name of the game:
The new First American CoreLogic HPI Forecast anticipates continued declines in most markets, albeit at a slowing rate, for the next six months, followed by a rebound in the spring. Above-average levels of foreclosures, inventories and unemployment will continue to take their toll in many major metropolitan markets in the short term. As the economy continues to improve and these factors improve, the forecast calls for housing prices to bottom for most markets by March 2010 and then turn positive. This would yield the first positive year-over-year house price appreciation since the beginning of 2007.
Here's a chart with a state-by-state breakdown of home price changes from 9/08 to 9/09 and the projected changes from 9/09 to 9/10. Note how Florida outperforms states like Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina, but under-performs California.
| State | September 2009 12 Month HPI
Change by State |
12 Month Forecast
(September 2009 - September 2010) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single Family Combined | Single Family Combined Excluding Distressed | Single Family Combined | Single Family Combined Excluding Distressed | |
| National | -9.83% | -5.95% | 0.65% | 1.09% |
| Nevada | -25.49% | -20.40% | 0.00% | -3.09% |
| Arizona | -20.28% | -15.37% | -4.78% | -10.85% |
| Florida | -17.66% | -14.76% | 3.88% | 2.05% |
| Michigan | -15.06% | -8.02% | -6.84% | -4.33% |
| Idaho | -14.92% | -10.85% | -1.19% | 2.60% |
| Oregon | -12.55% | -9.80% | -1.77% | 2.56% |
| Washington | -12.36% | -10.31% | -4.17% | -3.18% |
| California | -12.16% | -6.95% | 9.36% | 8.24% |
| Maryland | -12.03% | -8.18% | 4.33% | 5.35% |
| Utah | -11.42% | -9.09% | 1.22% | 2.19% |
| Illinois | -10.56% | -8.18% | 2.54% | -0.89% |
| Wyoming | -9.74% | -4.93% | -3.33% | -1.05% |
| New Jersey | -9.55% | -7.63% | 2.47% | 2.97% |
| Montana | -9.04% | -4.69% | 1.60% | 0.85% |
| New York | -8.75% | -5.67% | 0.03% | 1.26% |
| Connecticut | -8.62% | -6.87% | 1.05% | 0.81% |
| Georgia | -8.29% | -5.75% | -0.89% | -0.97% |
| Maine | -8.11% | -8.16% | 1.94% | -0.16% |
| Rhode Island | -7.77% | -6.59% | 6.31% | -1.40% |
| Delaware | -7.44% | -5.52% | 0.04% | 1.68% |
| Minnesota | -7.36% | -6.81% | 0.76% | -0.51% |
| Alabama | -6.91% | -3.92% | 2.58% | 1.93% |
| District of Columbia | -6.64% | -4.90% | 4.72% | 2.14% |
| South Carolina | -6.29% | -5.18% | 2.38% | 2.41% |
| North Carolina | -5.70% | -4.80% | -0.19% | 0.36% |
| Wisconsin | -5.60% | -4.76% | 1.59% | 1.58% |
| Tennessee | -5.52% | -3.20% | 1.16% | 1.46% |
| Pennsylvania | -4.68% | -3.86% | 0.69% | 1.46% |
| New Hampshire | -4.60% | -5.94% | 5.00% | 2.98% |
| Mississippi | -4.55% | -3.02% | 0.79% | 1.30% |
| Indiana | -4.50% | -3.16% | 0.14% | -0.15% |
| New Mexico | -4.36% | -3.57% | 3.38% | 4.50% |
| Hawaii | -4.20% | -1.65% | 3.31% | 3.31% |
| Missouri | -4.10% | -2.11% | 2.35% | 1.21% |
| Louisiana | -4.08% | -1.77% | 2.24% | 2.69% |
| Arkansas | -3.89% | -2.79% | 1.37% | 1.78% |
| Virginia | -3.66% | -4.38% | 0.54% | 7.17% |
| Kansas | -3.30% | -3.94% | 2.11% | 1.60% |
| Colorado | -3.02% | -3.13% | 0.58% | -0.61% |
| Ohio | -3.00% | -3.55% | 0.00% | -1.05% |
| Massachusetts | -2.80% | -3.64% | 12.75% | 1.57% |
| Alaska | -2.70% | -2.60% | 2.06% | 3.93% |
| West Virginia | -2.56% | -5.46% | 0.79% | -1.08% |
| Kentucky | -1.53% | -0.37% | 2.74% | 1.70% |
| Oklahoma | -1.51% | -1.14% | 4.01% | 2.48% |
| Iowa | -1.37% | -0.39% | 2.37% | 1.67% |
| Nebraska | -0.97% | -0.43% | 3.93% | 2.36% |
| Vermont | -0.13% | -2.96% | 7.00% | 3.54% |
| Texas | -0.01% | -1.60% | 1.83% | 1.68% |
| South Dakota | 1.86% | -0.48% | 5.39% | 2.26% |
| North Dakota | 6.93% | 5.08% | 7.88% | |
(Un)Real Estate offers a peek at the housing market usually reserved for insiders. While it focuses on the Tampa Bay area, it won't neglect dipping
into the rest of Florida and beyond. Its goal? Simple: To help you keep a roof over your head without losing your shirt.
Anybody wanna bet a lunch on this? I'll take the under any day of the week.
Posted by: Tino | November 19, 2009 at 06:03 PM
Well Mr. Doom and Gloom...you may want to take a basic English class prior to making bets!
Posted by: Elaine | November 20, 2009 at 02:15 PM
The "Excluding Distressed" columns do *not* exclude their pricing influence on conventional sales.
Posted by: Frank Lee | November 20, 2009 at 03:36 PM
I see prices staying flat and not going up.
Elaine, what does basic English have to do with the content of this article? Sounds like you are angry at Tino because you do not like his prediction .... That is just sad that you object to others opinions!!!
Posted by: Fuzzy Bear | November 22, 2009 at 10:14 AM
First American CoreLogic and Zillow , the are the biggest joke what I ever read. I checked on my own house , Zillow write $ 195,000.00 and Corelogic
write $ 125,000.00 .I dont know where the take this numbers. If somebody is looking for refinancing and the banks look up this pages , the won't even send a appraiser , because EVERYBODY is under water.I think the only way is,to stop the banks from selling this houses for few bucs.The should be required to sell it only for the owners balance , after the own them, or have to hold them for 12 or 24 month.
The FED money is sheap for 1 or2 years.
Posted by: eule | November 22, 2009 at 11:58 AM
Listen to Lawernce Yun of NAR. For the past four years he has been saying things will go up next year. He may be right one of these years.
Posted by: David | November 23, 2009 at 12:51 AM