Despite downturn, Tampa Bay attracts more educated workers

Tampa isn't a "cool" city but, according to Forbes, we still managed to attract plenty of young, educated people during our glory years:

Net migration, both before and after the Great Recession, according to analysis by the Praxis Strategy Group, has continued to be strongest to the predominately red states of the South and Intermountain West.

This seems true even for those seeking high-end jobs. Between 2006 and 2008, the metropolitan areas that enjoyed the fastest percentage shift toward educated and professional workers and industries included nominally "unhip" places like Indianapolis, Charlotte, N.C., Memphis, Tenn., Salt Lake City, Jacksonville, Fla., Tampa, Fla., and Kansas City, Mo.

The overall migration numbers are even more revealing. As was the case for much of the past decade, the biggest gainers continue to include cities such as San Antonio, Dallas and Houston. Rather than being oases for migrants, some oft-cited magnets such as New York, Boston, Los Angeles and Chicago have all suffered considerable loss of population to other regions over the past year.

You're reading this right: The coming housing shortage

Into every stormy day the sun must come. At least that's true in Florida. Here's a put-on-a-happy-face piece in the Washington Times that predicts we can't suppress our appetite for housing much longer:  

The coming housing boom will not only employ carpenters, electricians and roofers, but real estate lawyers, policemen and firemen, teachers and athletic coaches to begin a very long list. It was once said that the automobile industry was the great American job producer. No more. That honor surely goes to housing.

America's history of successfully absorbing large waves of immigrants is a lightning rod for controversy, but the historical record is clear. New immigrant groups - be they German, Irish, Chinese, Italian, Jewish, Polish or Greek - are at first greeted with suspicion. Then they work hard, make lasting contributions and end up being central to America's cultural fabric.

Mexican immigrants are the hated group du jour but move into the mainstream rapidly. Today's landscapers and housekeepers are raising tomorrow's engineers, judges and entrepreneurs. Today's immigrants, like others before them, will leave the slums and barrios to chase the American dream in a leafy suburb.

Florida economists make similar points about the state's popularity as an immigration depot, mostly for Latin Americans. Will that accelerate the appreciation of our homes? I'm not so sure. Land is cheap and plentiful in Florida. Rest assured, developers will push deeper into orange groves and cattle pasture. Builders will churn out hundreds of thousands of new homes.

California development is artificially constrained (and naturally constrained by mountains, deserts and fault lines). Floridians don't seem much interested in throwing up man-made impediments to growth.

Insane overreach: Climate bill to require "environmental inspection" of homes

The fine folks in Congress seem determined to wrestle Florida's already gimpy housing market into the dirt. The proposed "cap and trade" environmental bill includes a provision that's sure to depress home sales. From the Web site Politico:

That bill contains 397 new regulations. One of them would affect almost everyone who buys or sells a home. If Waxman-Markey becomes law, homes for sale that qualify as “federally related transactions” — which is almost all of them — would be required to undergo an environmental inspection.

Inspections are not free. Nor is fixing the inevitable violations. Compliance with new energy-efficiency standards would make homes, especially older ones, more expensive. Selling one’s home would become even harder than it already is in this down market if Waxman-Markey-style cap and trade becomes law.

And that is just one of the unintended consequences.

Suppose you have a window that isn’t quite airtight or your appliances are a little too old. Maybe they’re not Energy Star certified. You’d have to replace them before you would be allowed to sell your home.

The result could be the end of fixer-upper homes; surely, this is not what Congress has in mind. Some families prefer to buy a home in less-than-stellar condition on the cheap and make repairs and upgrades themselves.

Here's a thought: Let consumers, guided by their own sense of frugality, decide what appliances and building features to install in their homes. Such legislative overreach smacks of neo-Puritanism - the fear that someone, somewhere is living larger than yourself.

I want to install an attic fan to vent heat from under my roof. It should cool the upstairs and spare the air conditioner. But I'll do it at my own speed. My motivation has nothing to do with an invisible odorless gas called carbon dioxide. I want to cut my electric bill $50 a month.

Second Tampa Channelside condo developer declares bankruptcy

Last summer, dozens of people sued The Place at Channelside to get their money back on condos they felt they overpaid for in 2005.

On Wednesday the developer had had enough. Key Developers Group and its owner Fida Sirdar asked for Chapter 11 protection.

His is the second bankruptcy filing this year among Channelside condo developers. Towers at Channelside LLC declared insolvency in January.

Sirdar completed two eight-story towers last year but many investors who paid top dollar during the housing boom wanted out of the 245-unit complex at Channelside Drive and Washington St.

You've got to sympathize with both parties: The developer who built with confidence knowing he had bona fide buyers and the buyers who realized too late that imploding home values would skin them alive.

Call it the Great Home Heist of 2007

The proposal to double the homestead exemption from $25,000 to $50,000 on Florida homes is a joke. There, I said it.

But it’s hard to laugh at this particular joke. In all the debates about property taxes, no one seems to mention that the $25,000 homestead exemption, effective since 1982, has been The Incredible Shrinking Tax Break for 25 years. When the exemption was increased from $10,000 to $25,000 between 1979 and 1982, the median home price in the Tampa Bay area was about $50,000. In other words, the exemption cut the taxable value of your house in half. March forward 13 years.

In January 1995, when the complementary Save Our Home tax cap took effect, Tampa Bay area homes sold for a median price of $71,000. The homestead exemption exempted about 35 percent of a home’s value. Observe our plight today: Based on September’s local home sales price of $200,700, the value of the exemption is only 12 percent of a typical home’s value. What seemed like a governmental gift in 1980 is the Great Home Heist in 2007. Home values have risen through the roof, but the state hasn’t indexed the exemption for inflation.

Instead, the Legislature passed Save Our Homes, approved by voters in 1992. SOH caps the increase in taxable value of a primary residence at 3 percent a year. When you move, you lose the accrued savings and are taxed at your new home’s real value. Florida Tax Watch flagged the unfairness of SOH back 1992. People mistakenly think SOH is a tax cut. It’s not. It’s a tax shift, a shift to first-time home buyers, businesses, vacation homes and anyone who wants to change his or her address. To its credit, the Legislature tried to rig a fairer tax structure this year. The homestead exemption would have expanded to 75 percent of a home’s value up to $200,000. The state would have taxed a $200,000 house as if it had been worth $50,000. Voters feared the change. A judge objected. And the Legislature hatched this turkey of a compromise to double homestead to $50,000.

On my house, it’s going to cut $200 off a tax bill of $6,200. The sound you hear is laughing. And it’s not the joyous variety.