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« Start date: Dec. 1 | Main | Lawmaker urges USF to improve security »

October 31, 2007

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I don't have any problems with what Mr. Ford said on a political level. I have seen the official analysis of the "cost" to public education. My review of this analysis is that public schools really COULD be held harmless quite easily by the legislature when the build next year's budget if the amendment were to pass.

How can a $2.7 billion impact over five years really be mitigated?

1) Two thirds of the impact accounted for in the loss is in the RLE. The Legislature could (if taxable property values actually dropped) simply raise the rate of the RLE next year and in future years to raise whatever amount they feel is needed for schools.

2) Two thirds of the impact of the amendment is attributable to the portability provisions. It is my believe that a SOH benefitted homesteader cannot actually remove ANY value from the overall statewide tax rolls by taking their SOH savings with them. If I have $200,000 of SOH savings and I move, my new property goes on the rolls at less than true value, but my old home revalues without the $200,000 savings I had accumulated. It is a new zero statewide. As such, I believe that the benefit does not COST over $2 billion over the five year period at all.

3) The previous amendment that was wiped from the ballot would have cost schools $7.1 billion over four years but the Legislature and Governor had promised to eliminate the impact of that amendmement. If there was even a glimmer of hope of accomplishing that promise, covering an impact that is less than 30% of that total IS really possible. $2.7 billion over five years only would require about $500 million of recurring revenue increases over the normal in the first year to cover the entire projected nut. While that is a lot of money, in 2006-2007, the increase for public schools was over $1.6 billion compared to 2005-2006.

4) Many people recognize that portability, if it simply removes any tax disadvantage to buying and selling homes, will be a huge shot in the arm for the real estate market. Sold homes generate a tremendous amount of economic activity which will generate additional general revenues for the state (doc stamps and sales tax). While these new revenues are not in any way earmarked for education, they are also not included in any of the current impact statements for the amendment.

The key to the question of looking at the current "loss" estimates is whether you believe that taking your current SOH savings with you somehow actually reduces the state's overall taxable property values. It cannot do this, so over $2 billion of the total "loss" isn't at all real.

So, someone start the flaming.

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