On that retention/promotion theory

Okay, maybe there's nothing to this notion. But given extra skepticism towards this year's FCAT, it's still worth a closer look.

Here's the theory: Fifth graders took an unexpectedly big dip on this year's FCAT because some of them were promoted to fourth grade when by state law they should have been held back and given extra help.

Yep. These are the same kids who, as third graders in 2006, took the now-infamous inflated FCAT.

According to figures from the Department of Education, the percentage of third graders held back in 2006 dropped to its lowest level since the state retention policy went into effect. In 2006, 6.8 percent of third-graders were retained, compared to 9.8 percent in 2005 and 8.1 percent in 2007.

In raw numbers: 14,151 third graders (out of 208,494 total) were held back in 2006, compared to 20,121 in 2005 and 16,676 in 2007. (To see more retention stats, click here.)

Is that enough to affect the 2008 scores? Education Commissioner Eric J. Smith said last week that students caught up in the 2006 retention/promotion question "probably wouldn't be a statistically significant group."

- Ron Matus, state education reporter

Comments

A group of 3K to 6K in a total of 200K IS a significant group especially when there is something unique about them. The irony is that if the group is significant it would explain the testing problems without it being a problem with the 2008 administration. The commish seems to think something else is in play. What is it? Another bad test?

I'm offended by Comm. Smith's quote "probably wouldn't be a statistically significant group." Let's not forget, we're talking about children who need additional support for their education!