In case you missed it

As we've logged in nearly daily, enrollment in Florida's school districts is sagging well below projections.

Now as we near the 20th-day count, the Department of Education has released the 10th-day figures showing that the state's public schools have 36,574 fewer kids in them this year than last year. That's a 1.37 percent decline, and not even close to initial expectations of a 1,682-student increase.

Explanations, and excuses, abound. (Hurricanes, Labor Day, declining construction work ... you get the picture.) And the numbers could change as early as Tuesday, when districts count again.

Still,  it doesn't take much calculation to figure out that districts stand to lose millions in funding. (With a base per-student allocation of $3,971.74, we figure a minimum reduction of $145.3-million). Look for layoffs, forced job transfers and more. And that's before a likely special legislative session for, you guessed it, more budget cutting.

Comments

Jeff,

When you figure the "loss" for districts, you need to add back the declining enrollment suppliment. Historically, this was 50% per UFTE lost year over year. As such, some districts will lose 100% (districts that were expected to grow but didn't) while others will only "lose" about half. The Legislature changed the declining enrollment this year so that it was not exactly the 50% as before, but the concept is the same.

This "loss" does not HAVE to happen either. The Legislature could, when it has the special session to balance the state budget because of failing revenues, change the BSA (reduce the amount of the decrease from the regular session) to soak up some of the difference; however, I imagine that the folks in Tallahassee wil espouse how wonderful for the economy it would be if hundreds of additional employed adults are dumped from jobs where they are needed to unemployment.

[Jeff Solochek]

You know, I forgot about the supplement. Thanks for the reminder.

As for whether the loss has to happen, I'd like to hear what you all think about the likelihood of the Legislature taking steps to avoid it.

My bet is that given the Legislature's SERIOUS financial problems; they will see this as a windfall for their coffers. The school districts in the worst shape will be the people who don't get the sparsity. They will be out of luck!

I agree with 10:39 a.m. that the Legislature is likely to take the money to meet their problems instead of helping to restore public educaction. Sparsity has nothing to do with how badly a district will be injured by losing students. Whether the district is actually smaller than last year or just smaller than projected will have the biggest impact.