Powerball: a sucker bet, a tawdry business for a democracy

Florida was the last state with its own lottery not to join the multi-state Powerball game. But now, with sales leveling off and a desperate economy, Florida has given in and will join the racket in January.

When we first got a state lottery in 1987, I was all for it -- it was fun and novel, and just like everybody else, I bought bunches of scratch-off tickets. Soon we had Lotto, and I've bought my share of those tickets too.

But in the ensuing two decades I've become convinced that government-run lotteries in general do more harm than good.

* The original claim was that lottery profits would "enhance" education in Florida, not replace existing spending. But it was a giant con game -- the state now spends less a share of its regular budget on education than it did pre-lottery.

* Lotteries are a tax on suckers. The odds of winning the Lotto are 1 in 23 million. The odds of winning the Powerball jackpot are an amazing 1 in 146 million. Even from the point of view of "legitimate" gambling, considering payoffs versus odds, it is a ridiculous deal, a criminal deal that no self-respecting racketeer would offer. On top of that, the lottery has compounded the sucker bet by enticing players into DOUBLING or TRIPLING their spending -- FOR THE SAME LOUSY ODDS, and the ridiculous promise that they can "choose their jackpot" by adding $10 million or $25 million to it "when they win."

Look, how many people buying tickets are really doing it "just for fun"? Our American Idol society already lacks utterly any understanding of risk and odds. One in 146 million is an incomprehensible number. It means, basically, "something that cannot happen." To put things in perspective, the original estimates gave a 1 in 250,000 chance that an asteroid named 2003 QQ47 would strike the earth on March 21, 2014. But heck, that's nothing -- the impact probability of a body named 99942 Aphophis hitting in 2036 is 1 in 45,000.

By the way, your lifetime odds of being killed by lightning are 1 in 82,000; of suffocating in bed, 1 in 6,325; of drowning in the bathtub, 1 in 9,377; of dying by falling off a ladder, 1 in 9,616 (although probably higher in my case).

And yet, under Gov. Charlie Crist, Florida is gung-ho for gambling. Bring on the casinos! Expand the Florida Lottery! Sign up for Powerball! As long as there is a chance that we can extort more money from the people who can least afford it, we won't have to -- God forbid -- pay taxes ourselves. It is "free money," meaning, we do not have to have the gumption to decide for ourselves what is a legitimate public purpose deserving of taxation.

By that argument, the state should start sending out letters claiming to be from Nigerian princes, to see how many people will contribute to the state's coffers that way.

Consider the bizarre rationalization of the lottery secretary, Leo DeBenigno, talking about lottery sales at gas stations: "I don't know about you, but when I go fill up my gas tank, I'm not in really in a good mood when I'm done." So ... so, what does THAT mean?

Comments

[guy]

Get all the fools on your side, and you can be elected to anything~~~~~

[Jim Johnson]

C'mon! Powerball odds are better than the odds for collecting a pension embezzled by your employers over 40 years.

[Jim Johnson]

Oops! I shoulda said BETTER THAN THE ODDS OF HOWARD RETIRING FROM SPT.

[dennis]

Thanks Howard, now I'm afraid to go to bed!

[Greed pays the state]

You said it Howard, lotteries are a tax on people who are really bad at math.

But, I prefer user taxes so at least my money is not going to this ridiculous endeavour. (e.g., you want a new baseball stadium - great a 20% surcharge on all tickets and a business tax that decreases in size in concentric circles out from teh new stadium. I don't go, it brings no value to the local economy, why should I pay?).

However, the state is not your babysitter. If someone wants to give their money for this purpose, lets not get superior and think we know better than those spending the money because they are not as educated as we. That is elitist liberal cr@p. The people voted overwhelmingly for a lottery. Let the voice of the people stand . . . and don't give me that it was suppossed to be for education garbage either - it would have passed anyway.

[John]

1 in 146 million. It is truly a tax on suckers. And the uneducated. I've watched people take cash out of their Progress Energy payment envelope and use it instead to by scratch-offs instead. And lose. You wonder how the rest of their month went, with no electricity. Insane.

But those are better odds than the Rays have, getting a waterfront ballpark at Al Lang.

[Bland]

Howard,

Ben Franklin said "ignorance is the hardest thing to combat."

Forest Gump lives and is in charge.......

it is not the state's responsibility to keep stupid people from harming themselves. It is the state's responsibility to generate revenue to offset expenses incurred in supporting the greater community welfare.

Lotto does this. Gambling does this. I say bring it on.

If you want to spend your welfare money on lotto tickets, or booze, or crack, or transfats . . . be my guest.

[Don Mott]

Hey Guy, I see you do the Cryptoquote too.

[Jim Johnson]

If you think the lottery is dum consider the gozillions of dollars the state wizards lost with the DOT.COM crash, ENRON, and the credit-bundles. It was a large chunk of change, folks.

Some people shoulda been hanged, but we dont even discuss it. We diss Joe Schlub instead.

You people are stunning.

[John]

Let's not forget the Enron loophole that has made oil speculaters very, very, very rich men off the backs of those Joe Schlub's pumping $4.00 gas into their Camaro.

[allan]

The same shell game was pulled on the citizen's of California,promise a lottery thats for a good cause to get it passed but who's promise's are illusionary. Bally's gaming was very good at getting the petition approved by the voters. It was the easiest money I every made,standing in front of Costco asking people if they wanted a State lottery and at a dollar a signature it felt like I had hit the lottery some times making two or three hundred dollars a day. But how can Howard really complain that loudly when newspaper's publish the point spread for all sporting events and then claim with a straight face that it's only for entertainment purposes..oh come on. But I approve of the lottery, people are going to gamble and the State might as well get a piece of the action.

[William Carroll]

"If you have to drive ten miles to buy a Powerball ticket, you're 16 times more likely to get killed in a car crash on your way than you are to win."

- Michael Orkin, professor of statistics, Cal State Hayward

[John]

Howard,

How about the news that the Florida Supreme Court just beotch-slapped Charlie Crist with that ruling on the Seminoles pact?

What the heck do they do now? The state has to cut a $60 million check back to the Seminoles for what they've already paid towards the 100 million "deal"?

Flori-duh at its finest.

[guy]

Don Mott ~~ Well it took a while for someone to notice maybe we were the only ones who got it ~~~LOL

[Jim Johnson]

John

The oil speculators are state and local governments trying to recoup their other losses. They lost lost their asses since 1998 in one failed scheme and another, and oil is where theyre banking the money they have left.

Have you noticed no one is preaching conservation? Odd isnt it?

[guy]

Don ~~ My mind is really screwed up, so most everything I write has a hidden meaning.
But that puzzle this AM reminded me of the O'Bomber campaign.

[buzzard]

Good for you, Howard.
Good analysis.
Good story.
Good luck!

You two need to get a room.

[Don Mott]

I'm of two minds on the issue. But I don't believe that buying Lottery and Lotto tickets has ruined anyone's life. Until they won millions that is. Casino gambling is a different story. Guy I'm what you would probably call a liberal Democrat and would relate it more to Bushies and McSames but I don't argue politics.

[Richy]

Greed, lets not forget one thing, the lottery was sold sitting on a steaming pile of s***. As Howard points out, we were told that the money would be used to ENHANCE education funds. As it has borne out with our Republican government, education funds have been sinking. The state keeps pulling out more money and expecting the system to stay above water. And now our "friend" jeb is still trying to take money from education to fund his vouchers using a ballot initiative that was proposed in a way that is at the least unethical, and most likely illegal. And the system perpetuates itself. By not producing high quality graduates who can earn high wages, we get more people who subsidize the lottery.

[guy]

Don ` not to argue politics is a real good attribute, I admire you for it. but as you get a little older you will get a little wiser, and some choices become much more clear.
FDR day's are history, but some people believe that we are still in the same shoes of our parents.

[Don Mott]

Thanks for the compliment Guy. I will say I don't have cardboard for soles in my shoes, but I do hope to get wiser as I get older.

[Don Mott]

Richy you are right on sir. As soon as the lottery money came in the state began withdrawing funds from our schools. The voucher system has not proven to be effective at all. And there have been several cases of abuse due to lack of oversight. I can't remember but the last I knew Fl. was ranked either 46th or 49th in education. Yet Jeb would have us believe he improved our schools tremendously.

[allan]

,Guy ,Don has already drank the kool-aid,claim's he doesn't talk politics' ,but throwing a smear on John McCain is prefectly fine. John McCain is not the same as Bush and only an uninformed person would buy that bull.

[Jon McPhee]

Hey, allan, I'm starting to get the hang of this Libertarian thinking.

You "approve of the lottery, people are going to gamble and the State might as well get a piece of the action."

Here's from a Florida Cabinet meeting in Feb., 2002, noting approval of borrowing "up to $300,000,000" against the income from the Florida lottery (that's ticket sales, minus payments to every Quik Stop and Publix that sells them, minus administrative costs as in millions to the companies that print and distribute the numbers -- ah, tickets, minus a bunch of other stuff. Not much left for "Jed-ucation."

Here's the language:

"1. APPROVAL OF MINUTES OF MEETING HELD January 29, 2002. (Att. #1)

"2. A RESOLUTION OF THE STATE BOARD OF ADMINISTRATION APPROVING THE FISCAL SUFFICIENCY OF AN AMOUNT NOT EXCEEDING $300,000,000 STATE OF FLORIDA, STATE BOARD OF EDUCATION LOTTERY REVENUE BONDS, VARIOUS SERIES:

"The Division of Bond Finance of the State Board of Administration of Florida (the Division) has submitted for approval a proposal to issue an amount Not Exceeding $300,000,000 State of Florida, State Board of Education Lottery Revenue Bonds, Various Series (the Bonds), for the purpose of providing funds for the financing of the costs of classrooms and educational facilities.

"The Governor and Cabinet adopted the Authorizing Resolution for the Bonds on May 12, 1998, and such Resolution has been amended and restated. It is anticipated that the Governor and Cabinet will adopt the Sale Resolution for the Bonds on February 12, 2002....

"The Division has heretofore issued Lottery Revenue Bonds, Series 1998A through 2001B of which $1,430,305,000 in principal amount was outstanding and unpaid on January 31, 2002."

Here's the URL:

http://www.myflorida.com/myflorida/cabinet/agenda02/0212/agenda_sba.html

So do I read this right? Through 1/31/2002, the State had figured out a way to "securitize" the Lotto "income stream" by selling bonds for which payment is guaranteed by skimming the Lotto bank, which we all knew for sure was going to pay for "eddication?"

Yeah, I know it's all about high finance that us Bubbas jes' cain't understand, "revenue smoothing" or some such thing.

Looks an awful lot like what our very own County and City hoped (and still hope) to do, to subsidize a stadium, based on "tax anticipation bonds."

Just think of all the lost motion, finder's fees, commissions, transaction charges, private jet charters, Bahamas fact finding, salaries and bonuses for the money men who quietly do our business for (or is that TO?) us every day. Many have noted that tax revenues have soared over the last decade, and now all the people-serving arms of gov't are told to cut 4 or 10%.

Tell me again that we've cut the waste and fraud in govenment to the bone, Hambone -- looks like the pork will keep on getting diced and pushed through the legendary legislative sausage maker!

allan, your comment started me down an entirely different path. I was going to add another "Libertarian" and apparently Limbaughian thought: If the government would end the new Prohibition and legalize the mainstream mainline drugs like cannabis and heroin and cocaine and such, and taxed and regulated them, think of how much new revenue would be injected into the Earmark Pot (oops, bad choice of words) for all of us to fight over. And it might end the corrupt, corrupting and vicious (on all sides) drug/drug enforcement business. And Mr. Limbaugh would be more easily and less fretfully able to satisfy his curiosity about the effects of the Oxy meds on the human limbic-and-other-parts nervous system.

[Don Mott]

allan, I did not say I would not talk politics. Go back and re-read my post.

[allan]

re Don ,And know debate goes on in your mind?

[allan]

During super bowl week every office in america has an office pool and on any weekend of the year people are betting on football,basketball,baseball,etc. In fact internet gambling had balloned to such a large enterprise that the federal goverment stepped in to close it down.I support gambling but dont support the missuse of those funds by the state. Some of the money I think does some good. It is a shame if the citzens of fl. don't benefit from the money raised. If the state gas tax was being missused by the state,should we than say the tax is wrong.

[allan]

Mr. hope and change said today "Obama" he might "refine " his Iraq approach,will so much for his plan to withdraw all brigades within 16 months of taking office. When will we know where Obama really stands,on NAFTA,campaign funding or any other issue. Starting to look alot like Bush me thinks.

[allan]

re Jon,comparing lottery tickets and making drugs legal are is comparing apple's to oranges,buying lottery tickets doesnt kill people on the roads or cause the mental and physical damage,that drugs do.Or the loss in tax revenue by missed work. The state gov play on people greed is good if it lowers my taxes. Crist getting married.

[Poorboy]

No matter, they get your money anyway allan.

Jon's Schtick is comparing apples to oranges, when they begin to rot he appeals to Howard for a refrigerator.

He refers to MahaRushie more often than the accused dittoheads, inventing his weak homemade suppositions.

[allan]

You mean ,"El Rushbo"?

[Jon McPhee]

allan, let's see how long I can hold my breath this time.

Re "gambling is an ok vice," tell that to folks who lose the Nest Egg to all that innocent gambling.

Driving southbound on US 19, there used to be three billboards in an ironic row -- one for the Seminole Casino, one for the Sun-something Gambling Ship, and one for, Drum Roll!!!, GAMBLERS ANONYMOUS, complete with picture of despairing family members and a toll-free number.

Google 'gambling addiction' and see the damage that gambling does.

All sins have costs. Drugs (including of course tobacco and alcohol) naturally do. Betcha at least as much death and suffering is the result of tobacco addiction and alcohol abuse as from the various illegal drugs.

And now we have Columbian drug dudes hiring German and Swedish engineers to build them semi-submersibles and full submarines, and probably buying "obsolete" diesel-electric ex-military subs, to help move the un-customed and untaxed product around.

Here's just one of many tales on the subject of the huge international drug trade, which exists due to Prohibition and the feedback process of enforcement that drives scarcity and thus the huge profits. Ask Al Capone how it works:

http://lankapage.wordpress.com/2006/12/06/sri-lankan-tamil-indicted-for-transporting-3-tons-of-cocaine-in-submarine/

Interesting that a Tamil "terrorist" was part of the crew. What do you suppose THAT was all about? Illegality of Sched II drugs helped our government fund the Nicaraguan Contra death squads, with profits from drug deals through Panama. Maybe you're too young to remember Iran-Contra and Ollie North as anti-Constitutional subversive instead of Right-wing talking head.

And cops and judges and legislators are being bought, with the consequent devastation of the Rule of Law, that myth that helps the rest of us believe we live on a level playing field. With money that by extension of the “gambling is innocent” argument, rightfully should belong to the taxpayers of the State of Florida. It works for several European countries.

How do you like them apples? (inhale…)

[since1962]

I too agree that the lottery is a fiscally/ethically irresponsible funding source. However our own Penny "for" Pinellas, with communities feeding trough mentality and questionable expenditures WITHOUT ODDS for payers is an even more blatant taxpayer abuse.

[allan]

RE: Jon, THE PROBLEM IS THAT SOME PEOPLE HAVE ADDICTIVE PERSONALITIES,BE IT ALCOHOL, DRUGS,GAMBLING,SEX OR IN THE CASE OF WOMEN SHOPPING. SHOULD WE TAKE PERSONAL RESPONSIBILITY OUT THE HUMAN EQUATION ALTOGETHER. WHY SHOULD ANYONE RISK STARTING A RESTURANT,THEY MAY FAIL AND LOSE EVERY THING. I am well aware of the nefarious activites of Oliver North,and the dynamic's of the probitibition. Just As many people die from a bad diet,should we keep advertisers for putting up billboards showing cake," Mcdonald's" from promoting hamburgers. Personal responibility not the goverment banning every thing they think is bad. Life ,liberty and the pursuit of happiness requires giving people the option of falling flat on there face. As for your claim that we should legalize drugs because the crooks already traffic in them is like saying all cops should't have guns because a few shot people inappropriately. Drugs tear at the fabric of a socity and I have heard that most doctors abuse the drugs they proscribe like the doctor on house.

[Jon McPhee]

So which is it, Allan?

"Drugs [do you include booze and cigarettes?] tear at the fabric of a socity and I have heard that most doctors abuse the drugs they proscribe like the doctor on house."

On the other hand, as an apparent Libertarian, you say:

"Personal responibility not the goverment banning every thing they think is bad. Life ,liberty and the pursuit of happiness requires giving people the option of falling flat on there face."

And you recognize the " the dynamic's of the probitibition," and say the government can't stop Mcdonalds and Betty Crocker from helping food-addicted Americans to kill themselves with pleasurable gustatory experiences.

Seems to me, at least as far as the logic takes us, you really think halting the prohibition of things like currently illegal drugs, and maybe even tolerating the abuse of prescription meds, is part of "life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness."

At least if drugs were legalized, regulated, tested for purity, and taxed, a whole swath of the related problems (corruption, gang activity, wholesale incarceration of people whose only crime is recreational use of pot or even crack) that "tear at the fabric of socity" would disappear.

But what do I know?

[Mr. Tibbs]

Jon...Recreationl use of crack is impossible,kind of like unringing a bell. Sounds to me Jon that you have ingested to many drugs yourself. It is a fantasy to think all the wayward souls,gang members,corupt judges,cops and others would upon losing their ellict enterprise, become pillars of the community. No they would find other illegal avenues to rob society. If drugs were legalized more people than are now incracerated would go to jail. Fun to see how long a crack addict could hold a job flying planes,or how about having his or her finger on the nuclear botton. When these junkies cannot work anymore,I wonder where they will get there money,no they will end up in jail or more likely a mental hospital. Then people who dont destroy their minds with drugs can pay their hard earned money in taxes to take care of them. Sounds like a winner to me Jon.

[Jon McPhee]

What we're doing now sure does seem to be working well, doesn't it? In fact, Mr. Tibbs, your latest post pretty much describes the exact conditions that exist in our nation, which are one of our few current growth industries. Maybe if all the money, and it's a lot, that currently goes to "drug enforcement" and more and more prisons and the perpetual and already lost "war on drugs" was instead returned to more productive uses, there might be a chance of defeating all those hypothetical horribles you are so sure will come about (and are actually dragging us down already.)

As to the personal comment, other than an occasional bit of alcohol and one lone cigarette, my drug use has been limited to OTC dangers like aspirin, ibuprofen, glucosamin-chondroitin and multivitamins, and prescription meds for the high blood pressure and ulcers I give myself by getting wound up about the idiocies of humanity.

Do you have any idea how much you, as a hard-working non-druggee, are paying this year to "take care of" our Prohibition-based response to "bad drugs?" It might be worth researching that question. Add in the publlic costs of legal and illegal gambling, and like a former senator once said, "pretty soon you're talking about some real money."