Quite a few rat's expletives, actually

Another week, another first for USF football, now ranked for the first time and running out of things to feel slighted about. The Bulls' national poll debut -- 23rd in the AP, 24th in the coaches' poll -- puts all the pressure on USF to not only win against North Carolina, but win impressively. A year ago, USF had never beaten a BCS-conference team outside the Big East; now the Bulls are two-touchdown favorites to accomplish that feat for the second game in a row.

And if the Bulls can win solidly Saturday, there's reason to think USF could be in the top 20 when the Bulls play host to No. 5 West Virginia on Friday, Sept. 28. Three of the teams directly ahead of USF -- Texas A&M, Kentucky and Georgia -- have tough road games at Miami, Arkansas and Alabama, so all three could easily drop after losses. Just as USF has surprised people, these first three weeks have put the rest of the Bulls' season in a different light:

-- Notre Dame doesn't look like a bowl-eligible team. And since the Irish are affiliated with the Big East for bowl agreements, that means you can ratchet your expectations for USF up one bowl: if you were thinking Birmingham before the season, think Charlotte; if you were thinking Charlotte, think Jacksonville and so on. Notre Dame has four easier games to end the season, but there's little to suggest they'll win two of their next five, which they'd need to get the six wins they need to go bowling. This has a direct impact on USF's bowl picture, and a positive one for the Bulls for certain.

-- Cincinnati now looks like as much of a pivotal game for USF as anything. The Bearcats are ranked sixth -- SIXTH, folks -- in the new Sagarin ratings, one spot behind West Virginia, and Cincy should be 5-0 and ranked in the major polls when they travel to Rutgers on Oct. 6. With Auburn losing again, the Bearcats' dominating 34-3 win against Oregon State now looks as impressive a nonconference win as the Big East has shown this season. If they can beat Rutgers, they get Louisville at home a week later, a one-two punch that could give the program a huge national buzz, even if they're only drawing 22,000 for home games.

-- Louisville's defense is suspect enough to add plenty of intrigue to the Nov. 17 game in Tampa. In two games against I-A opponents, the Cardinals have given up 82 points, and because of that, it's hard to put Louisville in the league's top tier with West Virginia and Rutgers. Until they can shut down a Big East offense, it'll be hard to see Louisville as capable of landing a secondary BCS bid, high-scoring offense or not.

-- The in-state games against Central Florida and Florida Atlantic now look like much more significant challenges than they did a month ago. UCF gave Texas a real scare in their new stadium Saturday after beating N.C. State, and running back Kevin Smith leads the nation with 183 rushing yards per game. Florida Atlantic knocked off Minnesota 42-39, a huge win for a young team that is now plus-10 in turnovers this season. UCF's Sagarin rating is 64th, only seven spots behind Auburn and 19 spots ahead of UNC. Again, two games USF should win if they play well, but nothing for the Bulls to take lightly.

-- If USF can win at either Rutgers or Pittsburgh, the Bulls should be able to do something no Big East team did last season: win three league games on the road. The other two road games -- at Connecticut and Syracuse -- look reasonably easy for the Bulls. Connecticut needed a fourth-quarter touchdown to beat Temple at home, and Syracuse is 0-3 with one of the five worst offenses in I-A football and a defense not far behind.

-- The bottom of the coaches poll is insanely tightly bunched. How much so? Last week, the difference between 25th and 26th was 68 vote-points (Georgia 199, Auburn 131). This week? Only 26 vote-points separate No. 23 Kentucky and what would be No. 28 Texas Tech. In short, if half the balloters slide somebody up just one spot and everybody else stays the same, that one team could jump six positions.

Thoughts? What remaining USF opponent has surprised you the most, good or bad? Unanswered questions after the long weekend?

Comments

[Jason]

I have to say I was disappointed to see Auburn lose again (and to Miss. St.!), which sort of takes away from our win there. Watching the games from around the country - UCF, Cincy, FAU - really gets me worried. The only "gimmes" from here on out are UConn and 'Cuse. So every week, the Bulls are going to be tested.

When I see how well some of our opponents are playing, I wonder why we are in the Top 25 and not them - especially Cincy!

Stay focused, Bulls!!!

[DELdaBULL]

Cincy looks awesome so far! Good thing we get them at home (we play really good football at Ray Jay). All of our remaining games are winnable (beat all teams within the last 2 years), but we have to bring it every week (even UCONN and Syracuse as history has shown).
GOOOOOO BULLLLLLLLS!

[Accountability]

Great News being in the Top-25!!!

HOWEVER, there is NO Time to Party. The Bulls are now the target for others to upset. We must make sure that we are prepared for EVERY Game including Conn and Syracuse.

Beware of UCF, they are a Good Team and will come to RJS hungry to take our place as one of the Big-4. Top that off with our reluctance to continue the series that they so badly want and they have every reason to be PREPARED for the game.

Cincy ran right down the middle of our throats the entire game last year. We need to tighten up the D-line and as stated above, be PREPARED for the game.

It's great to be recoginized with a showing in the Top-25, but don't let that get to our (and only our) heads. We are now the target and (again) must be PREPARED for EVERY Game.

Let's show some enthusiasm and Stand Up for the Kickoffs.

GO BULLS!!!

[Reality]

After watching Texas destroy UCF on the ground, I am sure Mike Ford is licking his chops...

[Dave]

I think the coaching change at Cincy somehow worked out for the better. There is no doubt that D'Antonio is a very good coach, but how come he couldn't coax a game like that out of Grutza- who got backup reps all week? I think Kelly is another offensive genius in a league full of them. Rutgers and USF share the advantage of being defensive teams- it is easier to reload on defense than on offense, in my opinion. But Kelly really seems to know his football- that defense shut down Yvenson Bernard and Sammie Stroughter- that's impressive.

[Ari]

The upcoming schedule is scarey favorable...

Unreal, if you take an honest look at this schedule, there really isn't a game we can't win..

This could be a Boise State year.

Oh -- but the kicker.. That kicker could really come back and haunt us.

[cee]

With all do respect, there are a lot of "IFs" in those blogs. IF we were trying to predict things via probability, then we would have to MULTIPLY an incidence with another incidence in order to determine the probability of those things happening in succession. What we would be left with is a very low probability.

1. ND will always get a better bowl than us. the general public would much rather watch ND on TV than our thug program. it's just economics.

2. cincy will toy with us like they did last year. cincy coming into ray jay for homecoming will be like 2 out of the past 3 homecomings.. we should call it our 'shortcoming' instead. wvu smacked us with pat white and, dare i say it, ARMY beat us on homecoming. cincy will be more of the same. pathetic.

3. UL doesnt need to play defense. anthony allen will have his own version of a homecoming back to tampa when he bruises our undersized 1-star d-linemen. they will capitalize on our mistakes, and brian brohm has the pedigree of the next peyton manning.

4. we only beat UCF and FAU by a total of 8 points last year.. this just in.. we are BCS and they are not.. we should be destroying them. we struggled against ELON all 1st half and we barely beat a bad Auburn team by 3 pts in overtime.. a team that MISS ST. put away in regulation.

5. HAHA winning against syracuse and uconn? ok, maybe.. MAYBE syracuse, but uconn? c'mon, do we really want to bring that one up? remember last time we were up there with andre hall and julMISSED. we stunk up the joint and we can't play in the cold. leavitt freezes like the tampa bay bucs.

enjoy the rankings, casual USF fans.. the passionate fans know better. this wont last and hopefully it will wake you all up to realize the deficiencies of our program.

[G.A.]

Notre Dame won't get a better bowl if they fail to win six games. That was my point. USF didn't play Florida Atlantic last season.

[Amanda]

Notre Dame will not get into a bowl game this year... they are absolutely pitiful and it's going to take them another year or two to clean up what's left in their team, especially the freshman quarterback who's been on the ground more often than not.

[Ken]

If we play well, we could run the table, though that's incredibly hard, and, judging from last year, virtually any team except surely Syracuse could upset us. It will be interesting to see how we play as the favorite in some of the tough ones this year--we've always been the underdog, even against that "bad" Auburn team that was going to beat us by 40 points. Another passionate Bulls fan looking forward to Saturday at the stadium.

[Dave]

I guess pessimism can be called passion. Anyways, cee, UL probably should've tried that defense thing against UK. Generally, you only win by scoring more points, not by letting a WR get open by 20 yards on an obvious passing down. Something tells me Wally would've come up with something better. And the last thing, cee, don't forget that past performance does not indicate future results. I know you like to look for the few dark spots in USF's history and repeat them ad nauseum, but evidently the coaches and the players don't listen to your history lessons. Otherwise, we would never win a game because every team is better than 2004 Army, and therefore, 3 years later, we still shouldn't be able to win.

You should become a writer for Lewis Black, cee. That way you and him can be the most annoying duo in history. Just keep yelling "No new taxes!" and "USF lost to Army 3 years ago, therefore they can never be a good team!"

[DELdaBULL]

Classic Dave, CLASSIC!