Monday analysis: Same problems for USF

One of the trickier things in our college coverage is writing a follow-up story for Monday's paper: it has to take Saturday's game and either provide analysis or spin it forward, and with little Sunday access at USF (Jim Leavitt did take a call for a brief interview Sunday night), that usually means taking a closer look at the game and figuring out what went wrong/right.

So this week's Monday follow focuses on how so many of the problems that cost USF against Connecticut were the same problems that doomed the Bulls against Rutgers. Poor tackling on defense, an inability to force turnovers the way USF did in its 6-0 start, and on offense, a consistent lack of playmaking in pressure situations, like third downs or in the red zone. Add that up, and it's not hard to see how USF lost to Connecticut. The question is how quickly the Bulls can collect themselves and respond.

Remember how last week our game preview said that eight teams ranked in the top 10 had lost two games in a row this season? If there's a consolation to USF joining that group, it's that after losing two straight, those eight teams went 7-1 in the next game, the only loss being Cal's loss to undefeated Arizona State on Saturday night. So there's precedent for this being the point where a ranked team stops tumbling and catches itself. USF being at home helps with that, though Cincinnati is still a dangerous team, with talent on both sides of the ball.

If there's one team (besides Connecticut) that can dictate the final Big East standings, I think that team is Louisville. The Cardinals, among the bigger disappointments in college football this season, are 5-4, so they need one more win to be bowl-eligible. Their last three aren't easy though -- off this week, then a Thursday showdown Nov. 8 at West Virginia, then a big game at USF, then finishing at home against Rutgers. Crazy as it seems, winning out would put them in the thick of the Big East title hunt, with Connecticut still as the main problem. More likely, the Cardinals will be a November spoiler, getting one or two wins in those last three games to put themselves in a bowl and knock another league team down.

Comments

[Ari]

I bet we end in the Tire bowl against some garbage ACC team. Probably Wake Forest or something.

[Will]

I'm hoping we get selected for the Sun Bowl. I live in New Mexico and haven't been able to see the Bulls in person since I graduated in '05. Since we've pretty much killed any chance of a BCS bowl, the Sun Bowl would be a perfect Christmas present for me!

[I like shiny things]

Right. That was supposed to be a lead-in. I guess that wasn’t obvious.
I know your reputation as a grammar Nazi too well to attempt a post without editing it.

[With Hope]

Hopefully our breakout season will help with recruiting cheerleaders. God! that has got to be the most embarassing part about the increase in TV time, our cheerleaders are so fat!

[G.A.]

Recieved? Worse? Grammer? Can't tell where the real bad spelling ends and the fake bad spelling begins.

[I like shiny things]

Ha Ha! Your Kicker recieved hate mail? I bet that letter contained the worse possible grammer imaginable...

DEER kiccker,
from the fuzzy reception in my plant city trailer I could not beleve that you had had misseded the fealed goals. if my son wasn't standing by mee holding it, I wood had dropped my beer. me is going back to be a gater fan. i love jorts and strippers. don't let me cee u in da space odyssey afta da game.
sinseerely,
-tampa treasure(class of '95)

[Ari]

Hey Nisa...

I'm a fan and think Delbert stinks. Write it down. We are playing college football, not making friends. The kid missed four fields goal in the Auburn game including a 19 yarder. He missed a 35 yarder during the first drive against West Va.. He missed a 35 yarder at Rutgers and the other kick was blocked. Against Rutgers he missed a 24 yarder and a 35 yarder.

He stinks. I am sorry the truth stngs sometime. The guy is like 6 for 14 on the road, including a whooping a

2-6 against Auburn
1-3 against Rutgers
2-4 against Uconn

5 for 13 in USF's three big games this year. HA!

[Season Tix since '02]

Last year they were switching back & forth between Teachy & Alvarado, but neither kicker was very consistent. Too bad there aren't any more Gramatica siblings.

As far as recruits, for kicker we have commit from Maikon Bonani of Lake Wales. Converted soccer player who picked USF over Alabama. We have a JUCO WR commit from Anthony Jones. Anthony was considered a top WR recruit out of HS & originally planned on attending Oklahoma State.

[Nisa]

Its amazing to see how many bandwagon riders the team really does have...if they were winning everyone would praise the team...as far as Alvarado goes, he is a great kicker, he did it all before and it was the same guy that everyone loved when he kicked a Big east record of 56 yrs last year...maybe if he didnt have to worry of what people would say after or receiving hate mail he would make a kick...give that kid a break...no one is lined up to take his job because not everyone can handle the pressure....its sad to see "fans" dog the team...its pothetic actaully...your either a fan or a not a fan...support no matter what...if you cant do that then dont show up to games, dont comment...cause you're and embarrassment to the team and univiersity.

[nybullsfan]

Hey Ari,

You got a deal - I'll take the road games, you get the home games, and between us we'll cover them all.

[Ari]

I'll travel to my couch to watch the Sun Bowl... Does that get us anywhere?

[nybullsfan]

Any news on the injuries? It almost felt like we were losing a player on every possession...

[nybullsfan]

Greg,

I think that 4-year span started last year, so the Gator has to take a Big 12 team in 2 of the next 3 games. No?

Sun would be great, but are they really likely to invite USF to go that far from home when we only brought about 5,000 fans to Alabama, 1/3 the distance?

[VOR]

I am just hoping that due to the national exposure we are drawing interest from quality kickers & wide recievers that can see that they just may be the missing piece that gets USF over the hump as a perenial powerhouse.
Any word on the recruiting front?

[G.A.]

The Big East and Big 12 each get two teams in the Gator Bowl and two in the Sun Bowl over a four-year span, so nothing is set.

[HG]

One thing that I get sick of hearing is about how the WVU win was due mostly to Pat White getting injured....Those with that train of thought (Blog Posters and ESPN Commentators alike)clearly did not watch the game. Their back-up was so much better at moving the ball against us. Had Pat White not went out, we would have won that game by a lot more.

[happy hands]

You've got a lot to compete with for the Gator bowl. There are so many teams in the Big 12 that draw crowds: Texas, Oklahoma, A&M etc. There is also the Sun bowl (Dec. 31) with an okay payout.
http://www.sportsline.com/collegefootball/bowls/predictions

Has USF playing in the Papa John's again. Though they predict Houston as 3 in the C-USA. However, if ECU doesn't lose, UCF will probably be 3 in the Conference.

[Dave W]

Dale is right. If we win out and get to the Gator Bowl, it would still be the best season in USF history, and would the 3rd consecutive season of significant improvement. First bowl game, then first bowl win, and then first Jan. 1 bowl is a nice three-year improvement.

[Dale]

I hope USF wins the final four games and goes to the Gator Bowl that would be a great conclusion of a great season. Beyond this season I am really excited about the future of USF Football. I think this year is only a preview of what is still to come, the team is still rather young. MOVING FORWARD USF WILL BE IN THE TITLE HUNT EVERY YEAR!!!!

[Brian]

I think it is wishful thinking that the Gator bowl would be taking a Big East team this year, but it would be nice. I remember being told something about "Big 12 obligations". GA how set do you think that situation is?

[Season Tix since '02]

It's tough to get ranked that high & then fall so much but USF is still ranked, USF has still gotten much needed publicity this year & USF is still top ranked team in Florida which will all translate into a great recruiting year, including receivers & kickers :) Year is not lost, can still make decent non-BCS bowl (like Gator) which is another step up from last year. Progression is what you want to see. Team just needs to finish strong... Go Bulls!!!

[The Empty Seats @ RayJay]

I guess it'll be a little less crowded at the game against Cincy ... all those "diehards" will go back to cheering for whatever school they cheered for before this mirage got so many CASUAL fans worked up into thinking this was a legit program.

C-Ya Saturday!

Sincerely,

35,000 Empty Seats @ RayJay

[Mike]

There's 10-20 teams every year that have legitimate NC aspirations, and every year at some point all but 1 of them feel like we do right now. When we become a regular to the top 5, as I think we will, this will still happen most years, so get prepared to handle it if you want to keep following the Bulls as they become a regular power.

Still sucks though. It would suck even worse if I thought we were a one hit wonder. We are not.

Well, it's over, there's nothing we can do about it now but learn from it and move on.

Looking forward to Saturday, should be a hell of a game.

GA - Is the Times doing anything for the OG players? They're being recognized at halftime. Maybe a 'where are they now' piece?

[Happy hands]

KC,
In Kevin Smith's defense he only touched the ball 18 time against USF and the entire UCF offense had some sort of awkward breakdown at that game so he didn't get the blocking he needed. I know that's not your main point but still...

[KC]

Liek most things we are neither as good as we thought or as bad as some might say. We are a bit undersized up the middle but our scheme has not been good enough and our tackling has been poor. If both were improved we might have had the ball more and given our sloppy offense some more chances to score. We also need to remember Rice averages over 122 yards a game for his career so it is not like we are the only ones he runs over. And look what Kevin Smith did last night to USM..he was no where near that against us...so we have done well in spots against good backs.

Nevertheless, I am shocked we couldn't put a game plan together and execute it to slow these running games down.

We should have brought in a fourth linebacker like Spires and let our corners shut down the passing game removing a smallish/poor tackling safety from the mix.

Alverado is awfull, no way around it. He is costing us games and needs to sit out FGs..let him punt where he has done well.

The play calling is an entirely different matter.

And an Taylor's big run in the 1st quarter if the WR sustains his block, Taylor scores. Our players are not disciplined enough to play hard every play and to play smart. Some of it is youth, some coaching, and some that a lot of these players are not naturals at their position so it still is not second nature. Regardless it is frustrating. Watch some of our competition and they have less penalties, give more effort, and stay focussed. That is where we come up short.

[Stella]

FAU, Elon. Thats all I need to say. This season is about a couple of OVER-achieving games (WVU,AU) and not UNDER-achieving against UConn and Rutgers.

Usually USF pulls out one big win and blows one game and this year they got 2 big wins, it just so happened they were early and the world got excited.

Its no biggie USF is still due to lay a real stinker (UL or SU). Give USF time they will be good one day, that day is just not here yet.

[happy hands]

The 6-0 start was a fluke. Auburn didn't take you as serious as they should have and it cost them. Th WV win was due mostly to Pat White sitting the second half and the backup not making good decisions. All in all, USF should be 4-4. They had the breaks go their way in other big games that they are now not getting. Honestly though, that's how Florida won the NC last year. They got all the breaks in close games against better teams.
Hey, at least your bowl eligible now and will probably beat 'Cuse.

[Terry Lucas]

The sky is not falling... remember Taequon Underwood... the receiver who torched us last week for Rutgers... He only dropped four balls against WVU. It is part of the game folks... does it suck... yes... when our best receiver ever, DeAndrew Rubin, still has not gotten a calling card in the NFL, that should tell you the difference between pro and college Div I-A athletes...

Let me break down our true weakness... We are small up the middle. We will be punished by the Michigan's of the world, the Rutger's of the world... teams with a dominant back. Hell... Mike Ford would dominate us if he played for an Alabama. Teams with speed... USC, Oregon, WVU... we match up very well.

In time, we will be thick in the middle and fast... and then we will consistently be a top-5 team. If we played UF this week, we would beat them. And the scary part is... deep down, their fans know it even though they are mocking us after consecutive losses to UConn and RU. What really sucks about UConn and RU... their backs are coming back next season.

[JL]

We will get some good recruits to come in and CONTINUE to build this PROGRAM.

Be patient my fellow bullievers!

All this stuff is new...to EVERYONE. All the fans, players, and to a point, even the coaches.

[Brian]

I was shocked we didn't just go for it on 4th down on those plays ... or on the timeout they called to punt it into the end zone ... odds are probably about even with making a field goal. Alvarado has a leg fit for punting and possibly kickoff duty ... kicking ... unless he is lined up straight with some distance I can't see us chancing on it ...

[JL]

Ok ladies, in the great words of SNL...simmeh-dan-nah.

Our play-calling was very questionable and I still do not know why we do not have a feature back and use the running game!!

Grothe can put up some good drives though!

Dear Santa,

Here is my X-mas list.

1.) Receivers that can catch a ball
2.) A good kicker

Really, I hate to point the obvious, but if we get a couple of good receivers and a freaking kicker we will be in REALLY good shape!

Grothe can thread some nice passes, and he will be here for 2 more years.

In the meantime...I am purchasing my tickets for Saturday...Go Bulls!

[OR]

How OVER RATED was USF? WOW

[Ari]

Not only Alverado, but the penalties. I have never seen a team committ so many crucial penalties.

Alverado might have cost us six points but:

Last drive of the game, Grothe converts a crucial 4th and about 8 to the 2 yard line for a first down. Everone lines up and "false start" -- move us back to 1st and goal at the 7. Imagine if we had 3 plays from the two yard line, do you think we would have gotten the ball in the end zone.?

The series before that:

Mike ford runs right for a TD on 3rd and goal only for it to be called back by "holding."

That is 14 points taken off the board with boneheaded penalties.

[CG]

I really hate to be that guy, but here is my follow up: in spite of the poor tackling, stupid penalties and poor calls (what did that holding call really do to spring open that ford TD run?), isn't it amazing what an awful kicking game can do?

Auburn: Nine points that never made it to the scoreboard from straight up misses. This game should not have gone to overtime.

Rutgers: one miss, one block. Lose by three in spite of everything else that went wrong.

UConn: Two misses, lose because we can't score a touchdown on the last drive, when in reality if we made those field goals, all we would have needed was a chipshot to win it.

I don't want to single the kid out because it isn't all on him. I know Matt Grothe threw more touchdowns for UConn then he did for us this week, and sure alot of other things are going wrong in these losses, but CJL needs to learn to stop sending him in. I know he was lights out in the 64-12 win and against UNC, but in every major game he has lost easy points for our team. If there isn't someone on the roster that can get it done, hold open tryouts, I'm sure someone in the 45000 strong student body can figure it out.