My best guess: Bulls will face Oregon

There are a ton of scenarios that can play out this weekend to determine which Pac-10 team will face USF in the Sun Bowl on Dec. 31 in El Paso, Texas, but the most likely outcome as I see it has the Bulls playing another former No. 2 team that has fallen on even harder times, Oregon.

The games that will largely determine USF's opponent are UCLA at Southern Cal and Arizona at Arizona State, which will determine the Pac-10 champion. The variables for USF are whether the Pac-10 sends two teams to the BCS and whether the Sun Bowl wants to bring Oregon State back to El Paso for a second year in a row. The Pac-10's bowl agreements don't allow bowls to pick teams; they are handed the team that's in their slot in the standings. The lone exception is that a bowl can choose not to take a team if it had that team the previous season and take the next team in line. The scenarios:

USC and Arizona State both win: USC, currently 8th in the BCS, and ASU, currently 13th, both likely go to the BCS. Arizona State isn't a total lock, but it'd come down to the Sun Devils battling Hawaii and Virginia Tech for the last at-large if the Hokies lost the ACC title game. Presuming ASU is in, the Oregon-Oregon State winner goes to the Holiday Bowl, and the loser would fall to the Sun Bowl. If that loser is Oregon State, the Sun could pass and choose UCLA. If ASU isn't in the BCS, it gets complicated, and the Sun could have Oregon, Oregon State or UCLA.

USC loses, Arizona State wins: ASU goes to the BCS, and USC would likely still go as an at-large, but not for sure: The Big 12 No. 2 and SEC No. 2 are locks for at-larges, and if Boston College and Tennessee win close games Saturday, then Virginia Tech would likely get the third, leaving USC and Hawaii to fight for the last spot in the BCS. For giggles, we'll say USC goes to the Holiday. That leaves UCLA at 6-3 in Pac-10 play, along with the Oregon-Oregon State winner. It doesn't matter who wins at Oregon; UCLA has beaten both teams and would have to be the Sun Bowl's pick in such a scenario.

USC wins, Arizona State loses: This is the craziest: USC goes to the BCS, but what about Arizona State? They'd be on the BCS bubble and likely out, but if Hawaii lost and conference championship favorites like Virginia Tech and LSU won, the Sun Devils could somehow sneak in. More than likely, it's ASU to the Holiday, which would put the Oregon-Oregon State winner in, unless the Sun doesn't want Oregon State. Who would be next? There would be a three-way tie with 5-4 league records -- Oregon, Arizona and UCLA. And because Arizona beat Oregon and UCLA, the Sun could turn to Arizona, which is loaded with USF coaching connections.

There you have it. Three basic scenarios, with a couple of variations within, but all plausible ones that could yield to Oregon State, Oregon, UCLA or Arizona. I think USC, Arizona State and Oregon State will win, which would send Oregon to El Paso. It might not shake out until Washington and Hawaii finish around 3 a.m. Sunday morning, so stay tuned. Thoughts?

Comments

I think that whomever the Bulls draw, it will be a fun game - probably a closer and more competitive game than last year's bowl. Facing off against Oregon would be a nice storyline - two former #2's both trying to put the shine back on their season/justify their former ranking, etc etc - but honestly, I don't have a preference at all...bring em on, let's play anyone, anywhere, and when the Bulls win, making it wins vs. teams from 4 different BCS conferences, that will be some nice momentum heading into next season.

[cee]

we dont deserve to be playing another BCS program in our bowl.. we lost 3 consecutive conference games, and rebounded against some really garbage conference foes...

if we play oregon, jonathan stewart will make george selvie look like a real fairy, kind of lick what ray rice make selvie look like:

http://cache.viewimages.com/xc/77406515.jpg?v=1&c=ViewImages&k=2&d=17A4AD9FDB9CF1937E7588A1370768CDFCD2E6D0D2F38AEC284831B75F48EF45

what a joke. selvie should lose his scholarship.. someone tell that little boy he's gotta show up for the games that matter, not just the easy teams like elon

[Jon]

Before the season, I bet my brother an Oregon Alum that USF would finish above Oregon in the final rankings. Unfortunately, with Dixon going down, Oregon is in free fall. While I'd love to see the bulls beat Oregon in a bowl, I don't know if I could take the Bulls losing to a decimated Oregon team. My brother would have bragging rights for-ever.

[The Jersey Bull]

Any news on ticket sales?

[G.A.]

Jon, reads like you actually wagered an Oregon alum on that Oregon-USF bet. "Forget about lunch. Let's put an Oregon alum on this deal." Don't get me started on setting off nonrestrictive clauses with commas.

[Les]

It makes no difference who we play. It will be a chance to show what we have in our highest profile bowl to date.

[nybullsfan]

If UCLA, Oregon State, and ASU all win tomorrow, the Holiday should be forced to take UCLA, and we should get USC in the Sun Bowl!

Now THAT would be a quality win. Beating the preseason #1 (USC) and postseason #1 (WVU) in the same season.

Greg, while you're in obscure research mode - has that ever happened before?

#1 ASU 7-2 Rose
#2 UCLA 6-3 Holiday (beat USC and Oregon State)
#3 USC 6-3 Sun (beat OSU, lost to UCLA)
#4 Oregon State 6-3 Emerald (lost to USC and UCLA)
#5 Oregon 5-4 Las Vegas

Go Bruins! Go Beavers! Go Sundevils!

Gooooo BULLS!

[Cee's Mother]

Honey have you taken your medication this morning?

[Ari Hinkelberger]

No chance UCLA beats USC two years in a row.

[steve oneal]

Damn Greg, do I have to worry about proper spelling, punctuation, etc? I'm not real computer literate and I'm 51 years old. I have forgotten most of that stuff. Hell the kids now abbreviate everything while texting anyway and I can't make out a lot of it. Geez I'm getting old. Oh well, keep up the good work and GO BULLS!

[steve oneal]

Cee, where exactly is it that the great Ray Rice and Rutgers are playing their bowl game? That's right, In another country in some bowl called the International Bowl. HAHAHAHAHA! You are so funny Cee. GO BULLS AND CEE'S FAVORITE COACH, JIM LEAVITT!!

[Ari Hinkelberger]

I am sure all of you will be at the basketball game tonight.

I won't hold my breath.

Greg, there is a b-ball game tonight-- just in case you forgot.

[L.A.]

Just get scenario #2 out of your head as it's going to be good to be a Trojan today.

Fight on!

[Astro]

Ill be there Ari. Go Bulls.

[G.A.]

Ari, I'll be there too. Big game. USF has won eight in a row against the Knights, though the two schools haven't played since 2002. UCF's two losses are to ranked teams, so it should be a good challenge. I'll blog live from the game for you guys that can't make it there in person.

[Ari Hinkelberger]

I watched UCF play Villanova and they looked like a real solid team.

Should be interesting.

[Tad]

I got my tickets for El Paso. I hope to see either UCLA or Oregon play in the Sun Bowl. I think a win against either will help wake up west coast voters on USF being a contender for years to come.

Go War Pelican!

[Ari Hinkelberger]

watcing oregon on the tube -- they really really stink without dixon.

I hope we don't play them.

I want to play UCLA>

[nybullsfan]

Way to go UCF!

Makes our 64-12 victory look so much better. Hope they kick butt in the Liberty Bowl, too.

And if FAU can hold on for the victory, the computers are really going to love us tomorrow.

Go BULLS!

[nybullsfan]

Hold on they did!

Congrats to FAU! On to victory in the New Orleans bowl!

Go Bulls!

[Tad]

Will those victories really effect the polls tomorrow?

[Stephen Blackehart]

Great News Bulls Fans!

ESPN is reporting that Pitt has given Dave Wannstedt a contract extension, to 2012, despite turning a once-proud program into a joke. Un-bull-ievable! Especially considering the team had been to 4 consecutive bowls (including the BCS) immediately before he was hired, and hasn't had a winning season since.

Maybe we should start lobbying Syracuse to do the same with their coach...

[Tom]

USF and FIU are now the only Division I-A schools in Florida to have never won a conference championship in football. Let's go Bulls, win the Big East next year.

[nybullsfan]

All 6 computers use strength of schedule as part of the calculation. Every time a team that we beat, beats somebody else, it helps us.

[Dave W]

Been in the library all day long; all I can say is that C-USA really sucks at stopping the run. How can people say that Kevin Smith is so good when Matt Forte was just as succesful? Smith has played one real run defense all season long- ours, and he was marginal at best.
I think Wanny should have had at least one more year; he did recruit LeSean McCoy and many talented guys on D and endured big injuries to two of his best players (Kinder was really good) and his starting QB. I thought the extension was foolish, however. I'm all for patience in coaching (Bob McCullum notwithstanding), as Kansas, Mizzou, and Wake Forest all provide examples of why it should be done, but Notre Dame has shown the folly of unearned extensions, too. I would've given Wanny a one-year extension to satisfy recruits, but can him after next year if the team stunk again (and I don't it will. They won't win the BEAST, but won't be an embarrassment, either).

[Tom]

How do Robinson and Wanny keep their jobs when better coaches like Gailey, Franchione and Orgeron get canned? Greg Robinson is the worst coach CFB! I guess 'Cuse and Pitt are content in being BE bottom dwellers.

[thumper]

i believe usf had the best record in conf. usa while we were still a probationary team. of course that wasn't an official championship.

[thumper]

any more info. about recruiting? seems like we need 3 or 4 more o linemen and 2 more dbs. i hate to see all those stud running backs in pinellas and pasco county leaving. why do all the good players leave to attend lesser teams? usf is better now than those programs, and is on the rise.

[Dave W]

Tom, how are Orgeron and Fran better than Wanny? Same situation exists between them- good recruit, no results. Orgeron should've had another year, but it looked really bad after they fired a really good coach in Cutcliffe. But coaching is more politics than results. Pitt people support Wanny still, for the reasons I detailed above. Public support is really against the other guys.

[robull]

What school did cee attend? I have never heard him say anything positive about USF which makes me believe that A) he never attended any college or B) his own former school won't allow him to post on their websites. Makes you wonder....

[Tom]

Final- Oregon State 38 Oregon 31 (2 OT)

[JR]

im pretty sure we are gonna play UCLA at this point

[nybullsfan]

Pitt is giving WVU all they can handle - this is NOT the same Pitt team I watched last week at Heinz. These guys are fired up - last week they were so flat.

Or can it be that WVU is really this bad???

Go EERS! Bring the NC to the BE!

[Matt C]

Trib is reporting Sun Bowl officials as saying it will be Oregon. On a similar sounding note, if you want to know why Orgeron got canned at Ole Miss, read Bruce Feldman's "Meat Market," and you'll see that Bobby Knight had a better rapport with the IU administration than O did with anyone in a position of authority at Miss.

[Tom]

It appears that the refs have been told by the Big East to make sure they do all they can to get WV to the MNC game. That was a terrible holding call, should have been a Pitt TD. Big East officiating at its best.

[JR]

oregon is a horrible choice at this point!! they are on a losing streak without dixon, why would they want them at the bowl, UCLA would be a better choice in my opinion

[nybullsfan]

Even if WVU manages to pull this out, they look so bad I can't believe the humans will keep them at either #1 or #2.

Mizzou doesn't look like they're going to take OU either...

Can you say Ohio State vs. Georgia??? Ugh!

[nybullsfan]

Two more questionable holding calls involving #88, and both go WVU's way...

[nybullsfan]

I'd rather play UCLA too. UCLA and Oregon both look very beatable right now, but we would get more prestige points by beating UCLA, I think.