Full disclosure: My Big East preseason ballot

This is always an uncomfortable post for me, but the Times has a policy stating that its reporters can only cast ballots for preseason polls or postseason honors if they disclose their ballots publicly. Again, it'd be hypocritcal of me to complain about the coaches' ballots being secret during the season if I weren't making my own available for public scrutiny.

I just filed my rankings for the Big East's preseason media poll, which will be released at the conference's preseason media gathering in Rhode Island late next month. Again, this wasn't easy, and so many things are still in flux. Before I meander too much into details, here's my ballot:

1. West Virginia

2. USF

3. Connecticut

4. Pittsburgh

5. Rutgers

6. Cincinnati

7. Louisville

8. Syracuse

There you go. I don't think USF will finish higher than third in the media balloting, but one thing I think could help the Bulls is the schedule. Of the three teams I have immediately below USF, all three have to come to Tampa this season. The middle of this league was such a logjam last year -- remember that every team had at least two league losses, and everybody but Syracuse had at least three league wins. Remarkable parity, and except for Syracuse, you can make a case for any of the other seven team making a real push.

I started my ballot by putting West Virginia at the top and Syracuse at the bottom -- I'm less sure about the Mountaineers, primarily because their defense will be so unproven and inexperienced. I can certainly see a situation where USF and West Virginia are undefeated in league play entering their final showdown, and I give the edge to West Virginia because they'll host that game with a lot on the line.

Similarly, I have Connecticut ahead of Pittsburgh because the Huskies host the Panthers that same December weekend, and beyond that, I just am more impressed with Connecticut and just haven't bought into Pittsburgh turning things around yet. Again, the depth of the league shows when Cincinnati and Rutgers are in the bottom half of the projections -- if the Bearcats could get Ben Mauk, I might bump them up as high as third, but with an inexperienced quarterback, I'm not as sold on them.

There you have it. I'll open things up to your comments, and invite you to list your own rankings from top to bottom. We can revisit this in December and see how far off we were -- I know I had Louisville second this time last year, and that didn't exactly work out. (Here's my '07 ballot from last year's blog). I think West Virginia will get a huge majority of the first-place votes, but their defense certainly isn't championship caliber yet, and we're talking about a first-year head coach. The difference between third and sixth in this conference could be one game ... 

Comments

[702JV]

I agree with you G.A. as far as the rankings. The only way we finish number one is if Grothe cleans up his turnover mistakes.

[Ari Hinkelberger]

Seems like a decent forecast. I agree with the poster above.. Unless USF figures out a way to stop turning the ball over and get Matt Grothe to throw less than 10 ints in a season we can't win the Big East. His TD to Int ratio is pitiful.

I got USF going 10-2 this season. We lose at West Va and some other road game.

I think we beat Kansas for sure.

[Jim]

Based on Grothe improving his Int ratio and we have realy runners in Ford and Taylor that take the load off Grothe.

1) USF - Mental Focus is the key
2) Pittsburgh
3) West Virginia
4) Connecticut
5) Cincinnati
6) Rutgers
7) Louisville
8) Syracuse

[Jim Johnson]

Greg,

I can understand the list, but here is mine:

1 - South Florida: Entire offense returning, running game getting more stable, solid defense with capable new starters.

2 - West Virginia: Loaded with talent, but a new coach always means tweaks to the offensive scheme (and a new 'no bulls**t approach), only 12 starters returning.

3 - Pittsburgh: They were better than their record last year -- three turnovers away from 8-4 record, lots of talent from solid recruiting classes, LeCroy could lead league in rushing

4 - Connecticut: A heck of a lot of starters back from last year's team, solid QB in Lorenzen, host Cincy otherwise I would switch places.

4 - Cincinnati: Grutzen not as green as people think -- and may pull out a few gems, defense is the Bearcats strong suit this year.

6 - Rutgers: Mike Teel is not good enough to hold this team up without Ray Rice, solid defense will keep them in games - but offense won't get the job done.

7 - Syracuse: The Orange are still mired in mediocrity, their lone salvation will be hosting Louisville for their lone conference win.

8 - Louisville: Definition of rebuilding when most of your offensive production is gone - leaving Cantwell as a sitting duck, defense wasn't that good last year, new off and def coordinators... I predict 0-7 in Big East play.

[NickLurby]

Any of four teams can wind up on top. Besides us, UConn, Louisville, and Rutgers will still be strong.
Our defense will be solid. It will up to our O line. If someone besides Matt can run then we will win at least ten games.

[Tom]

I agree with greg's rankings. WVU will be tough at home. As always like our defense against their offense.

[nickdelray]

1-USF
2- PITT
3-W.V.

Wrap it up, put it in the books!!

[jarred]

We will know exactly where we will finish by week 3. If we go 3-0 with all solid performances then we should win the BEAST. I think WV will be lucky to get third. Like previously stated it's hard to win a championship with someone else's team unless you're Coker or Gruden.

[Ari Hinkelberger]

West Va still has Pat White and Noel Devine.

Both are SUPER - SUPER - SUPER - nasty.

It will be a year to watch. I hope we get off to a good start.

[James Wilson]

I like the Bulls to win the BE. I think it will be a photo finish and I think the champ is a 2 game loser. You can't under estimate teams like Rutgers and Cincy because they have excellent coaches and enough good athletes to win games.

Pitt has a great looking team, but Wanstadt will find a way to muff enough games to assure they remain also rans. Leshon McCoy will be player of the year though.

1. USF
2. WVU
3a. Rutgers
3b. Cincy
3c. UCONN
3d. Pitt
4. Louisville
5.

[usfmikeb]

Every year when I start reflecting on how I believe the upcoming season will shake out, I automatically wonder how consistent the program will be this year. To me, inconcisitency has been one of the key reasons our program hasn't enjoyed more success. Every year, we lose at least one game that we had no business losing. Every year, we struggle in games that we had no business truggling in.

So, even as I worry about where we'll be inconsistent this year, I just can't rank WVU ahead of us. I don't know yet if I would rank USF as the likely winner of the BE, but I cannot rank WVU there for many reasons, but most importantly, the coaching change.

There is so much to distract WVU this year, but who will stand up? Pitt? UConn? Is Rutgers still up there? Can USF play consistent enough to not lose a game against any of these teams?

[B^S]

Well I see where Greg is at but.. I think we will have everything worked out with Grothe and we will coach up the DB's. Besides that I hope we can get the O-line looking right. With these things done we should be #1 easily... I believe we will.
1. USF
2. Mountaineers
3. Cinci
4. Pitt
5. Rutgers
6. UConn
7. Louisville
8. Syracuse

[Otto The Orange]

1. Syracuse
2-8. Whatever

[BA]

Everything is set up for the Bulls to excel this year. Health is everything as it will be a long year and the days of us 'sneaking up' on folks are over.

Should come down to the Bulls and the Neers. Hopefully it will not be decided by the traitor (leaving the state) Noel Devine.

Go Bulls!

[Blake]

Greg,

It is hard to argue with your rankings. I think that USF and WVU are definitely the class of the conference this year. However, both teams have their flaws. We need to have Grothe take the next step as a great QB should from his Sophomore campaign to an upperclassman. We also do not know what we are going to get out of our CB's this year. WVU still plays crummy defense, and their speed has been proven that it can be stopped by the speed of the USF defense and the Pitt defense.
After those two schools, I think its a drop off to the logjam Greg mentioned. UCONN and Pitt will likely finish above Rutgers simply because Rutgers lost a big chunk of their offense when Rice left for the NFL. Also, I think it will be interesting to see just how much Cincy and Louisville fall off this year. I actually think that one may fall so far as to be overtaken by lowly Syracuse.

[BadAssBull]

WVU at #1 is the safe pick as a journalist not wanting to ruffle any peer feathers. One could point to the win over Oklahoma as evidence that all will be business as usual with the eers under Stewart. But wait, only twelve returning starters, new coaching staff, a new OC named Jeff Mullen who has called exactly...uh...no plays as an OC, ever. There's huge cavernous question marks with the WVU team, I don't see them finishing ahead of two teams.

1. USF -I'm a Homer
2. Pitt- New more talented QB,McCoy, Defense
3. WVU-new staff, very weak secondary, lost to many starters
4. Rutgers-no Rice, lost key o-linemen
5. Cincy-Head Coach will keep them relevant
6. UConn- got lucky last year
7. Lville-slightly better than the Cuse
8. Syracuse- why is Robinson still a coach

[Ari Hinkelberger]

Greg,
Not sure why you don't give Cinci a little more credit.

We lost back to back games to Cinci..

I think that will be a very very tough road game. Last time we played on the road at Cinci it really wasn't even close. Score was lik 19-3, but the game was a disaster. Cinci is a quality team.

[DELdaBULL]

1 UC
2. Pitt
3. USF (I really don't want this to happen [This would be the perfect year for a BEAST Championship], but we stink on the road and the only thing consistent about USF is the inconsistency)
4. WVU (Even though Devine and White are scary good)
5. UCONN (They conned every one and everything last year)
6. RU (please let them be this bad. No Rice. Yes!)
7. UL
8. Cuse

[Bulls'04]

1. USF
2-8. Who cares!

PS Grow a pair...Greg

[cg]

Hope USF ends up on top, with coaching changes and player turnover there is no better chance for them than this year. No Rice, Slaton (but devine is a beast) and Mauk.

But still, I feel like they will underachieve and go 4-3 in conference, worried about overlooking UCF (yes, that made me throw up in my mouth and it would be a huge upset for the knights) and they always start off so slow so the Kansas game is scary.

But anyway, good post Greg, hope Ford's hands are glue and they run him non stop.

[DELdaBULL]

BTW, I also have to go 4-3 in conference. I don't know where the three losses come from, but I have a feeling it will happen anyway. Even though I am from the NY, I might as well have been born in MO, aka you gotta "Show me" that things can change. I would take 5-2 in conference because that means we are headed in the right direction.

[Steve Stacy]

Here's my totally unbiased prediction on the Big East standings:

#1) USF

#2 - #8) Who gives a crap about all those other loser teams?!?!?!

USF! USF! USF!

[G.A.]

Here I was, ready to say something about you guys going like 10-for-10 in picking the Bulls to win the Big East, and Deldabull puts USF third. This much optimism, it must be June ...

[SMH]

I think people are giving Pitt way too much credit. McCoy is the real deal but they still have DW as their head coach and don't have a proven QB.

[DELdaBULL]

SMH,
According to the recruiting boards Wanny has been bringing in Top 25 recruiting classes for 3 years. That means talented juniors and sophomores. That means at least 4 Big East Ws. Shoot, even Doc Rivers can win with talent if you just get out of the players way.

[Dave W]

Even though I'm officially a Pitt student now, I don't have that much optimism for my new team (though I don't care that much about them). I thus rank the Big East as such:

1) USF- offense should be excellent, and I have complete confidence in Murphy, Roberts, and a healthy Chris Robinson.

2) WVU- Noel Devine will break into pieces after his 150th carry. USF-WVU as de facto championship game.

3) UCONN- offense is back, and Lorenzen will have a good year. On defense, moving Lutrus inside and a SS to OLB makes them faster. Jerrell Miller is eligible for them, and Randy Edsall is best gameday coach in conference.

4) Cincy- entirely depends on Grutza or Jones doing an impression of Mauk.

5) Rutgers- Teel could bring them up to three or down to seven. Britt and Underwood are outstanding, but losing Rice, Zuttah, and others will cost them.

6) Pitt- Shady, McKillop, and nobody. Recruiting stars mean nothing if you can't coach them. Matt Cavanaugh was terrible with the Ravens and he's worse with Pitt. Stull is the best QB, and was never going to be a star (I remember him from high school).

7)Louisville- I've liked Cantwell for a while, but the WR and RB losses are huge. Defense will improve with Ron English.

8) 'Cuse- terrible. Just terrible.

Why does everyone keep saying a new coach at WV ? The guy has been there for years, only difference is he is now head coach. AnyWho -

1 USF
2 WV
3 Pitt
4 Rutgars
5 Cinci
6 UCon
7 Syracuse
8 Louisville( oh how the mighty have fallen)

[Ari Hinkelberger]

I think Cinci is a really good team. I think Schiano might be the best coach in the Big East... And UConn has that QB coming back for his senior year.
And West Va probably has one of the top 3 QB's in the country returning for his senior year.

Big East is really good this year.

[Norb]

The game at Cincy scares me the most. Kelly always has them playing well, they still have QB that defeated us 2 years ago, Cincy doesn't lose at home very often & last time we played there they beat Grothe out of the game. At end of game Grother looking dazed and confused on the sidelines.

[Rueben Horowitz]

We are going to have some serious trouble stopping the run.

I would be happy with an 8-4 season.

1)UConn
2)WVU
3)UC
4)USF
5)Rutgers
6)Pitt
7)UL
8)SU

Greg - Have you heard if the naked bootleg on the goaline has been removed from the playbook?

[DELdaBULL]

We need to stop and establish the run. If Ford does not get 20 carries a game I will be very disappointed. I never want to see Grothe as our leading carry guy again. I don't mind him being the leading rusher, but it better be 5 carries for 103 yards.

[Bill Bellamy]

It should come down to the last game at WVa. I will be wearing my green and gold coonskin cap. As always, GO BULLS. But I don't see a national game, just a BCS game. I take that.

[Bernie]

To all you dreamers,

Don't think for one second that the WV, Rutgers, Louisville, PITT or UCONN games are locks..I even think the UCF game will be tough. We made a lot of mistakes last year and lacked discipline. If USF is too confident, they will have a letdown year. Take in stride. Go Bulls!