Yes, still alive: USF's slim Big East title hopes

It seems impossible that USF, with its 1-3 record in Big East play, would still be mathematically alive for a share of the conference title and the league's automatic BCS berth. Strange as it seems, the Bulls are still technically in contention, though detailing the scenarios for a USF title right now is something like offering up a combination of numbers that could win next week's lottery. Sure, I can do that ...

All USF has to do is beat Rutgers on Saturday and the Bulls will still be alive next week, regardless of other conference games. The first rule in any Bulls championship scenario is a big hurdle in itself: USF must finish its season with wins against Rutgers, Connecticut and West Virginia -- again, possible but not altogether likely. Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and West Virginia all have to lose two of their remaining three games, which is tricky, because Pittsburgh plays both Cincinnati and West Virginia.

And to be clear, USF wouldn't have the title to themselves. Any scenario that puts the Bulls in the BCS wouldn't be pretty for the Big East -- a huge logjam of at least four teams with 4-3 conference records stuck at the "top" of the league standings. The tiebreaker (and BCS berth) goes to the team with the best record within the schools tied for first place -- or in some cases, the team with the highest BCS ranking within a smaller subgroup of teams tied for the best record within that group. If it seems dizzying, well, it is.

Let's say Cincinnati beats Louisville on Friday night, improving to 4-1 in league play. They would have as many conference wins as USF could finish with and the head-to-head tiebreaker of beating the Bulls. So USF needs to bring other teams it has beaten into a super-tie with the Bearcats.

There are 11 conference games left, leaving 2,048 different outcomes. Three games must be USF wins, which leaves 256 different scenarios. If Cincinnati beats Louisville, there are exactly two scenarios where the Bulls can win. In short: USF wins out, Cincy loses to Pitt and Syracuse, Pittsburgh loses to West Virginia and Connecticut, West Virginia loses to Louisville, Connecticut beats Syracuse. It doesn't matter who wins Louisville-Rutgers the last week -- it's either a five- or six-way tie for first place.

If Louisville wins that game, it leaves USF, Cincy, Pitt, West Virginia and UConn all at 4-3 and all 2-2 within the subgroup, so the team ranked highest in the BCS standings -- likely USF -- gets the BCS berth. If Rutgers wins, they get a share of the league title split six ways, and USF would likely have the highest BCS ranking among the three teams with a 3-2 record against other teams in the six-way tie.

One more super-chaotic very narrow path to a Big East title for the Bulls: USF wins out, Cincinnati loses out, Pitt loses to West Virginia and UConn, West Virginia loses to Louisville, Rutgers beats Louisville, Connecticut beats Syracuse. Again, it's a five-way tie for first, with USF and West Virginia both 3-1 within the subgroup and USF having the higher BCS ranking.

Just trying to be thorough.

Comments

[Windbane]

Our chances went way down with Louisville losing to Cincy. Now Syracuse has to beat Cincy. I had some hope left that Louisville could help us out...every other game wasn't much of a reach for us.

[DELdaBULL]

I am watching Cincy UL, how come every team but USF knows how to beat the blitz (or has the ability to)?

[DELdaBULL]

Big East Championship? BCS?
We're just trying to win a game.

[RR]

Do you realize what you've done here, GA?

You've just given all the ridiculous USF homers out there (and they're legion) all the justification they need for calling a Big East championship.

Sure, the odds are like 800-billion to one, but as long as the logo is on the helmet and Jim Leavitt is the coach, they'll believe with every fiber of their being that USF is the best team in college football.

It's sad, really.

Oh, who am I kidding? It's HILARIOUS.

[Chalko]

There's a better chance I crap a golden nugget than USF winning the Big East. I think UCF would actually have a better chance to win a BCS title in 50 years then USF pulling off the the Big East Championship. At least UCF would have 50 years, USF has three weeks and horrible odds.

[GP]

There is something about knowing they are not mathematically eliminated though. But the final rankings were their destiny to begin with. All they had to do was keep winning. Oh well.

And Greg You have my vote in '12

[SRQ Steve]

Can't wait to read that to everyone at tomorrow's tailgate.

Since I'm trying to stay positive and hopeful I ask this question:

If the Bulls win out, do they have a good chance to go to the Gator or Car Care. I believe they have a much better chance than everyone thinks. We are a much better team when everyone is healthy. We have another bye week to come. 2 of the next 3 games are at home. I think there is a chance that we can win out. At 6-3 I would be happy to go to the Car Care and play an ACC team. What has to happen for that outcome.

[G.A.]

Trying to make it very clear that it's a tiny, tiny chance. So I explain this the same way I remind you guys I'm eligible for the presidency in 2012. Haven't registered any campaign sites, but ...

[T. Bever]

Just add a flip chart and 2 a.m. timeslot and you've got Ross Perot beat!

[DF]

Are you going to need shoulder surgery after reaching for that chance????

[Mack]

Stranger things have happened...

[G.A.]

It's a Lloyd Christmas chance.

[TJ]

I'm amazed a human could configure that and type it out so we could understand that. I would have had an aneurysm if tried to do that if I were you. There's a chance but as much of a chance as UCF winning a BCS title in the next 50 years.