Voila: My Big East preseason football ballot

Here it is, folks. I'm on the media panel for the Big East's preseason football poll, and the Times requires that if any writers vote on anything, we disclose our ballots publicly.

What I can say with the most certainty about the Big East in 2009 is that I expect a ridiculous level of parity. First time I went through the schedule, game by game, I had two teams at 5-2 and three at 4-3; the second time, I had a potential four-way tie at 5-2.

The difference between first and fifth place likely will be two games, so I'm almost positive the league will have a championship day of sorts played out on Dec. 5 with three huge games. Enough already, here's the ballot:

1. West Virginia
2. Pittsburgh
3. USF
4. Cincinnati
5. Rutgers
6. Louisville
7. Connecticut
8. Syracuse

Here's how close I had it in my last model -- if Rutgers wins at home Dec. 5 against West Virginia, it sets up a four-way tie at 5-2, but I have West Virginia pulling out that game to win the league crown. Couple of thoughts about how I arrived at the ballot:

-- You guys will be disappointed to see USF third, but I have them going 5-2, making them the most improved team in the league standings. My main concern is that USF is 3-7 on the road in the Big East since 2006, so I have them losing two road games, at Rutgers and Pittsburgh. Win one of those and get things done at home, it could be a Big East crown.

-- For West Virginia to win the league, I'm saying that Jarrett Brown is easily the best of the first-year starting quarterbacks, and that Noel Devine will be good for 1,200 yards and a ton of touchdowns. The Mountaineers have 15 returning starters -- only Louisville has more. Bulls fans need the West Virginia-Pittsburgh winner to lose to Cincinnati, making it plausible for a two-loss league champ ...

-- The league schedule is odd, in that you have Cincy at Rutgers right away on Sept. 7 -- I think Cincy outscores Rutgers in that one before the Knights can get comfy with a new quarterback. But then there's not a significant league game until Oct. 15, when USF gets Cincy at home on a Thursday night.

-- The crux of USF's season? It's a three-game stretch in late October -- home against Cincy, at Pittsburgh and home against West Virginia. If the Bulls swept all three, they'd have huge momentum and a week off before going to Rutgers.

-- Again, that last weekend is huge. West Virginia at Rutgers, USF at Connecticut and Cincinnati at Pittsburgh. I'll be amazed if the league title isn't handed out that day, with USF in contention.

-- And just so you don't put too much stock in these picks, here are my preseason ballots from 2008 and 2007. Thoughts? Comments? Let me have it here ...

Comments

[Mark]

Pitt
Cincy
Wvu
Rutgers
Usf
UConn
Louisville
Syracuse

Pittsburgh beside losing all americans LeSean McCoy and Scott McKillop, theyre still pretty solid, solid d line, great safeties and corners with aaron berry, a great o line, plenty of young talent all over, and some descent QBs, i guess

[Zac]

Thanks for the welcome, Steve. I hope you & the guys don't mind my being a Mountaineer fan. That said, I pride myself in being objective & open minded. But, as you've already seen, brevity is a bit of an issue.

I've been most impressed with how far the Bulls have come in so short a time-frame. They are easily on even par with the rest of the upper class of the league. I do agree with Greg; this year will be a slug fest. It is my hope as a Mountaineer fan that the league title comes down to the game at Raymond James. It should be a good one; the fans deserve nothing less.

I would also like to see 2 Big East teams make it in BCS bowls. That's a tall order, I fully realize, but I think there are a couple of teams which could pull it off & USF is one of em. Guess we'll see soon enough.

Oh, as for my predicted order of finish... (I duly admit to some hopes riding on this.)

WVU
USF
UConn
Pitt
Cinci
Rutgers
Louisville
Syracuse

[Steve O'Neal]

Welcome to the blog, Zac. Pretty insightful post, especially for the 1st one. Hope you like our blog. Greg is one hardworking guy and always brings us interesting things to read and discuss.

[Zac]

I'm new to this site; thought I'd chime in.

I always get worried when WVU is picked 1st; it's a tough level for most "top-tier" teams to live up to, let alone teams like WVU. Still, I think it's do-able; the stars have to align is all. I do like the fact that most pundits over-play the loss of Pat White and down-play his replacement, Jerrett Brown. Betcha Leavitt don't feel that way, which is why USF has beaten WVU twice in the last 3 years, and last year was no gimmie.

I'm excited about this year and the entire Big East. I think the Bulls are gonna surprise some folks, just as I think WVU will do the same. It's just a matter of USF putting it all together and consistently keeping it that way throughout the season; a tall order, perhaps, but definitely do-able. Tell ya what, though, if the Bulls beat Miami & win in Tallahassee, may God have mercy on the rest of the league (provided USF doesn't go into its patented road slump).

Don't get hung up on which teams have how many coming back. 1) It's who's coming back that counts. 2) It's who falls under quality replacements and how well they learn their respective team's system. 3) Depth & who's healthy. I consider WVU's Brown, in many ways, superior to White. BUT, who's behind him? For that matter, who's behind Grothe? 4)Who's the X-Factor? For every disappointment there's somebody who steps up as their teams pleasant surprise. More often than not, that looms large for opposing teams.

Let's talk about the MWC. (Humor me.) Has anyone noticed their Commissioner and his anti-trust investigation into the BCS? Has anyone noticed how much of the rhetoric is at the expense of the Big East? Even the BCS has effectively thrown down the gauntlet. Over the next 5 years (beginning with last season) those conferences which consistently show the greatest numbers of teams in the Top-25 (especially the Top-10) will be those granted automatic BCS bowl bids. So, for the time being, the Big East is still in. However, if this year looks like last year for both the Big East & the MWC, the MWC will have two seasons (based on BCS criteria) considered to be better than the Big East. Should the MWC pour on the pressure by inviting Boise St (another ranked team) to join them, it'll be even more difficult for the Big East to catch up.

Like it or not, teams like USF & WVU have to take full advantage of their schedules. USF needs to beat Miami and make a decent showing at FSU. (To be honest, I don't see why USF can't beat the Noles.) WVU needs to beat ECU & CO, and make a decent showing at Auburn. AND, the rest of the league must follow suit. The only Big East vs. MWC game is Louisville at Utah. (Any takers for the Cards? Didn't think so.) If the Cards can keep it close throughout, at least the argument can be made that it took a top-tier MWC team to beat a mid-lower Big East team. The point is, there's a lot riding on this season, which only makes it that much more exciting. Can't Wait!!!

[Ben c]

"what about the facts..." please dont call other people out on not knowing the facts when you don't know them either. isdaner was not drafted.

also ellis lankster only started for one year, Quinton andrews only had one year as a full time starter. morty ivy started two years. and slavomic started one. i would not say they were all 2-3 year starters like you did. only one was a two year starter the redt were all 1.

after that i stopped reading what u had to say because you were obviously wrong.

[G.A.]

Bulya: Again, West Virginia doesn't say it returns "nine defensive starters plus Reed Williams." West Virginia says it has eight back on defense, including Williams. Four starters from last year are inarguably gone: DBs Quinton Andrews and Ellis Lankster, LB Mortty Ivy and DL Doug Slavonic.

I'm not saying this; West Virginia is.

http://www.msnsportsnet.com/content/09SpringGuide-4.pdf

[Bulliever]

Bulya...

That's a lot of talk...WVa has to come thru TPA first and
based on home series stats, they have a 35%...

GO BULLS!

[Ken]

I can't wait until we can talk about football GAMES.

[Bulya]

Ok last time. WVU returns 9 starters on defense plus Reed Williams who WAS a full time starter in 2007 and Defensive MVP of the Fiesta Bowl. He is back 100% and WILL be 1st team Big East. On offense WVU returns just 5 starters and lost Pat White and 4 O-Linemen. Noel Devine, 2 starting WR and TE and RT return. Jarrett Brown has played a lot of ball for WVU and will have a big Senior Season. WVU WILL be Big East Champs and play in the BCS.

[Doug]

I'd like WVU if it weren't for old coach Forrest Gump Stewart at the helm. He's just plain out of touch and not head coaching material. He'll find a way to coach them down and out of the championship.

[G.A.]

I think the relative optimism around Cincinnati has much to do with Tony Pike and Mardy Gilyard, the best pass-catch combo in the league.

The defense was a major concern for me -- needing to transplant key offensive players to defense tells me they weren't happy with the depth behind last year's starters.

Having said that, I think they can knock off Rutgers in that Labor Day opener -- don't think Rutgers will be close to settling in with a new QB at that point and won't be as effective. Lots of new QBs in the league, and the rest of the league gets six weeks to get comfy before they have to play a tough Big East game ...

[Richard Todd]

Two points - Why does everyone keep picking Cinci ? We have their D coordinator and they lost almost their whole defense. I see them at the bottom with UL & Syracuse.

Is Stull really the guy that is going to lead Pitt to a BE championship. They have alot of talent but losing McCoy I think will show you how average Stull really is. When you are a QB that hands the ball off to a future NFL player it is alot easier to look good.

[G.A.]

Again, accepting that each school is doing its own math, here are the returning starters on offense and defense, then total:

Louisville 9-7 16
West Virginia 7-8 15
Rutgers 8-6 14
Pittsburgh 7-7 14
Syracuse 7-7 14
Connecticut 6-6 12
USF 5-6 11
Cincinnati 9-1 10

[what about the facts....]

my bad greg, you're right about Reed's 2007 campaign...i was meaning JT Thomas.

Take our match against WVU last year, they have 11 starters that are gone from that game. The bowl game, 12 starters.

WVU has lost quite a bit and are not loaded with starters...USF returns slightly more starters, and no one in the BE returns more than RU.

[JupiterBull]

My concern will be USF being unproven & untested at 3-0 heading into FSU. It will be HOSTILE (like UM years back). If we keep clawing up tickets and putting green in the seats, it may help. I bought my 4 tickets...and talked lots of my Bull alum to buy up some seats. Every seat we fill is one less Nole singing that mindless, droning 'Hawk Chop.

Let's keep healthy & pound FSU. Then show some coach coaching & not let other team beat us that are underdogs.

Chalko, your obsession with USF football is sad. I actually would like to see UCF be decent and have something to report on besides open litigation, so you'd be prone to post there instead. GO BULLS!

[Ken]

I hate to do this, but I guess I can't help it sometimes: It is true that 64-12 is a pretty embarrassing score, if you're a fan of the team with the 12. If we're in a BCS game, I'm betting we improve on that--in fact, we won't get beaten that badly by anyone all year.

[Harn007]

Chalko embarrassed like 64-12?

[Hernando]

Of course after all the hand-wringing and hair-pulling by everyone trying to forecast Big East football this season; Louisville or Syracuse will probably surprise everyone and win the conference title. Crazier things have happened. I'm still pulling for the Bulls!

[Windbane]

Burn.

[G.A.]

Your name is Facts, right?

Spot starter in 2007? Reed Williams started all 13 games and led West Virginia with 107 tackles in 2007. If he's healthy, he'll be an all-Big East type player for them ...

[what about the facts....]

that's generally propoganda from WVU...they're counting Reed Williams who didn't play last year and was a spot starter in 2007. If you look at the games WVU played in the second half of last year they're losing more starters than their spring prospectus suggests.

It's a semantical discussion as chalko so uneloquently alludes, however I think the point is WVU is moving around quite a few new people into the starting line-up. But Brown has so much experience he should acclimate quickly. For USF Brown was always an easy target.

[Commish Chalko]

Don't see them running the table, however, if they do, I absolutely see them getting embarrassed in the BCS game.

[Terry Lucas]

Here's my research Commish Chalko - USF runs the table in the Big East and has to settle for a BCS game. Still wish there was a playoff, but I feel we're playing with a full house this season in our hand.

[G.A.]

And back to PDS -- don't know if he was left off before, but Virgin is on the roster now. They've added 25 newcomers, which also acknowledges the first four signees I've written about as not being on campus this fall: Khyri Thornton, Kevin Williams, Adaris Bellamy and Gerard Atkins.

Kamran Joyer and Ivan Nicholas are still on there, but their status has changed in the last few days.

New numbers for the newcomers:

Lindsey Lamar 5
Kayvon Webster 6
Ryne Giddins 7
Ricardo Dixon 9
Victor Marc 15 (listed as QB)
Isaac Virgin 19 (listed as QB)
Bradley Battles 24
JaQuez Jenkins 30
Ivan Nicholas 32
DeDe Lattimore 34
Sam Barrington 36
Luke Sager 40
Leslie Stirrups 44
Chase Griffiths 53
Julius Forte 54
Jaquian Williams 57
Jamar Bass 63
Kamran Joyer 67
John McGhin 71
Carlos Savala 72
Steve Jacques 76
Derrick Hopkins 86
Sterling Griffin 88
Jason Pierre-Paul 90
Demi Thompson 93

[G.A.]

What About ... Here's a link to West Virginia's 2009 prospectus from their official site.

http://www.msnsportsnet.com/content/09SpringGuide-4.pdf

They list 17 returning starters -- I just counted offensive and defensive starters for my count, so it's just 15, only because some schools count more specialists toward their overall total.

There's not an exact science to calculating returning starters -- if a guy had four starts in 2008, does he count as one? I used the numbers each school considers for itself ...

[busf]

Bulliever,

Keep wishing on Tally becoming a neutral site, that is not going to happen!

I am a Bull grad that grew up as a Seminole. The Seminole's have one of the best game time atmospheres in college football. The atmosphere is very intimidating once the tommahawk chop gets started. It is a sight to see!

That will be a hard game for us to win. In recent years, both the Bulls and Seminoles are second half teams, so the game will be interesting.

Also, it is fitting that UCF fans are going to this game. It's not like they will ever play in a big time match-up like this with even a shot to win!

[Ken]

Interesting. Right now, I'd take 5-2, but we have to beat at least one of UM and FSU. I we don't, it will look terrible for us and for the conference. If we can beat them both, the parity in the BE will look like strength, whereas if we lose those the arguments about the BE will have a lot of ammunition.

[Commish Chalko]

What's the point of doing that much research on a preseason poll? Jesus christ!

[what about the facts....]

greg, where do you get your numbers on WVU? Lindy's and Athlon have them returning 10-12 starters depending who you believe. On offense, they lost four starting OL, including two draft picks in Islander, and Stanchek, they lost Jalloh, and White, and their starting OL...that's more than we lost on offense when you figure in White.

They also lost six on defense to include some real stalwarts like Morty Ivy, Quinton Andrews, Lankster, and Slavonic who were all 2-3 year starters.

As for for Pittsburgh...it's tough to say what will happen because McCoy was such a pivotal part of their offense. Last year he accounted for nearly 2000 total yards rushing and receiving, and with Stephens-Howling they collectively accounted for over 2600 yards, and throw in the loss of FB Condredge Collins and his nearly 200 yards receiving and rushing, that's around 2800 of their 4700 total yards gone. Throw in the fact TJ Porter has been dismissed, and with Derek Kinder gone those two accounted for 800 over yards. So almost 3700 of Pitt's 4700...to put simply Pitt is going to have to find some serious fire power in their rushing game to be that successful... they are a run first, play-action team and losing 3 starting OL too means they need to find a capable RB quick since the two back-ups to McCoy/Howlings/Collins also are departed. Who's running the ball, and thus far none of their QB's have shown an ability to seriously light it up in the air and give Baldwin enough touches to be truly the player he's capable of being. Not to mention Baldwin and Adam Gunn (two key starters) are both suspended right now with major legal issues.

To me the team to watch is RU, as much as it pains me to say. They return virtually their entire OL, most of their RB's, and though they lost some great receiving threats and a solid QB they have capable back-ups. If they can get a QB who is remotely capable I see them doing what they did last year- starting slow than going on a major tear at the end of the season as their QB gets comfortable, and team finds a rhythm.

With all that being said your assessment on USF is fair, and until we get over the proverbial hump of winning the pivotal road games no better prediction can be given.

[Commish Chalko]

Haha, yeah sure, USF is going to have 50K there!

[Bulliever]

Of course their seats are better, they are season tix holders...!

But if FSU keeps selling THEIR tix, it will become a a neutral site in Tally (and how sad is that....)

[Commish Chalko]

You, like you should be talking. Say what you want, they have better seats than you.

[Bulliever]

Good Job Chalko...

Should have known you would be buddies with all the Criminoles!

[Ari Hinkelberger]

Can't see Pitt doing well after they lost that RB.

[Commish Chalko]

Yes I am going. I have connections at FSU and will be 20 rows up on the 50. Have fun in the nosebleeds!

[Bulliever]

Anyway, I am on Facebook and was invited to join USF v. FSU event... here is the link...

http://www.facebook.com/event.php?eid=52515198981&ref=mf

It would be great if we could get a bunch of our fans to join this...
Thanks again! Are you going up to this game?

[Commish Chalko]

Denver, very thoughtful post, you should win some type of blog award "IMO."

[Denver]

West Virginia loses the Big East's all time yards leader, a bunch on defense, and will continue to erode the farther they get from the DickRod era. They also play at Cinci, Rutgers and USF. I just don't see it. I'd trade two losses to FSU and UM for a BE title and BCS Bowl. Beating those two teams would be big for our program, but our goal should be winning the BE. It seems like it's wide open this year. I just don't think it will be WV IMO.

[G.A.]

Not sure how they'll fare with FSU and Miami yet. To me, the big challenge with the FSU game is that the first three games are on a completely different level. They're all potential 40-point wins -- Leavitt won't say as much, but USF shouldn't give up more than 10 points in any of them.

As such, I think USF will show next to nothing in those first three games. So I don't know how well USF can flip a switch, to suddenly play at a much higher level, on the road in a hostile atmosphere. The road element definitely makes the FSU game the harder of the two ...

[Bulliever]

I have read a few articles where Canales has been interviewed and he says things that really make me a BULLIEVER! Finishing # 3 is good... I will take it on wins against FSU and MIA...

Greg, may I be so bold to ask your thoughts about how you think we will do against FSU and Mia?

[G.A.]

I don't think of Pittsburgh as losing three of their top four receivers -- I think Jonathan Baldwin will be a star, and Oderick Turner is solid. They need a running back, and a replacement for McKillop. I've got them at 5-2, but could easily see them 4-3 or even 3-4.

I hadn't seen a new roster from USF, but I'll check it out ...

[BA]

Please, please, please, anyone but Rutgers. They are easy to dislike living in the NE.

Go Bulls!

[Commish Chalko]

Good analysis G.A. Should be some good football coming out of the BE this year.

Windbane, with all the nonsense you post, any predictions you have I are meaningless.

[Windbane]

I don't see how Pitt can finish 2nd this year with no QB, losing their top 2 RBs, top 3 of 4 WRs (1 being McCoy), and 4 defensive starters, including McKillop. Oh, and they lose Conor Lee.

Other than that, I can't argue with any order with WVU, USF, Rutgers, and Cincy, personally.

I think it's bold that you picked Louisville ahead of UConn, though.

[WouldYouKindly]

This sounds about right, Greg. At least USF is improving.

[PDS]

Greg, did Issac Virgin enroll in summer classes? He isn't listed on the new USF roster with the rest of the class...