Forecast: Tampa Bay losing 42,900 jobs in '09

A forecast of coming 2009 job losses by metro area across the country is out -- from a reputable economic research firm -- and the news is grim nationwide and, in particular for Florida and the Tampa Bay area.

That Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater metro area is expected to lose 42,900 jobs this year, a number second in Florida only to the far larger Miami-Fort Lauderdale metro area's loss of 84,800. Those findings and much more appear in the report "U.S. Metro Economies: The Engines of Economic Recovery." It was prepared by the economic forecasting firm Global Insight for the annual U.S. Conference of Mayors meeting which concluded over this past weekend.

According to Global Insight's forecast, the Tampa Bay market's 42,900 lost jobs this year will represent a 3.4-percent decline in metro-wide employment by the fourth quarter of 2009 from the same period of 2008. Put another way, those lost jobs are expected to increase Tampa Bay's unemployment rate to 8.9 percent by the end of this year -- a 1.6-percentage point increase from 7.3 percent unemployed at the end of '08. That's a higher unemployment rate than Miami-Fort Lauderdale, Orlando or Jacksonville are expected to have by year-end (but Tampa Bay's is already higher than these metro areas). States the Global Insight report on the national outlook:

"The decline in the labor market is severe. Employment fell nearly 500,000 per month in the last four months of 2008, and we expect similar losses through the first quarter of 2009. December marked the 12th consecutive month of job cuts, and the cumulative payroll decline now stands at more than 2.5 million. We believe that is just halfway to the total job loss anticipated during this cycle.

"On top of the bad employment news, the unemployment rate has jumped to 7.2 percent, reaching a 15-year high. We see the unemployment rate rising above 9 percent by early 2010, the highest level since the early 80s."

The bad news for the Tampa Bay metro area is that 2009 job losses here are only a bit less than the combined job losses expected this year in both the Orlando-Kissimmee and the Jacksonville markets predicted to lose 27,700 and 22,300 jobs, respectively. But let's keep perspective. The Tampa Bay market's unemployment rate of 8.9 percent at the end of this year will remain significantly lower than unemployment rates expected in such metro areas as Cape Coral-Fort Myers (rising to 11.2 percent from 9 percent) or Bradenton-Sarasota-Venice (rising to 9.3 percent from 7.5 percent) or Punta Gorda (rising to 11.6 percent from 9.2 percent).

Here's a brighter side. You're not living in Modesto or Fresno, Calif., where the unemployment rates are expected to rise to 16.1 and 15.1 percent, respectively -- or even Rocky Mount, N.C., rising to 13.6 percent -- by the end of 2009.

Compared with larger U.S. metro areas, the sheer number of job losses in Florida are not as bad as they might seem. For example, the New York metro area will suffer the largest job drop, totaling 181,000, including over 50,000 in financial services as Wall Street retrenches. In Florida, the top 20 metro areas -- combined -- are expected to lose 199,929 jobs this year. That's more than the New York metro area alone, but not by much.

At No. 2 nationwide, Los Angeles will lose 164,000 jobs as the Southern California economy continues to deflate after the bursting of the housing bubble. New York and L.A. are among the 171 which will see job declines in excess of 2 percentage points through 2009. An additional 141 will see losses in excess of 1 percentage point of employment.

Unemployment will rise to above 10 percent in 70 metros, including the recently booming Riverside-
San Bernardino area, and in long struggling Detroit and Cleveland, says the Global Insight analysis. Los Angeles, Denver, and St. Louis will be among the 105 metros with joblessness above 9 percent. And 297 metros will see jobless rates rise by more than one percentage point in 2009.

-- Robert Trigaux, Times Business Columnist

Comments

[justathought]

Time to reinstate the CCC.

[Dawn]

I can't help but wonder how many of those will come from Jabil? Especially seems tax dollars were wasted, kissing their butts.

[TriplePlay]

okay - here's an idea - The banks have received billions and so far all that has happened is they are fiercely trying to buy each other out providing zero help to the taxpayer. How bout the losers in DC demand that each bank hire 100,000 people at $20 an hour. That will cost around 4.5 billion and each person hired by their respective bank will either refinance or purchase a mortgage through their bank.

GM will be told all workers with 25 or more years of service must take retirement. They will also add at least 100,000 workers to their payrolls. Additionally, all companies takin bailouts will have all CEO bonuses elminated with a 1$ salary. They will now be on a performance based payment. All upper management will have salaries frozen until the companies have paid back all loans. They will also have to dump other frills as stadium sponsorships, commercials, etc. Taxpayers who buy their cars will earn a tax credit which in effect will be interest free loans.

4,160,000,000

[Robert]

OKAY These folks were predicting job gains in January of 2008. The science of forecasting is not accurate at all.

[in the know]

I heard that Tech Data is getting ready to do layoffs too. They said they were done, but they are not. The last round was suppoed to be 1% of company, but they used the total number of employees around the world. No one in outside the us was let go. It was more like actually 4 or 5% of clearwater alone that lost jobs. They lied to the employees and media. Then they took away raises and what they matched for 401k plans and told employees all to relax, but now less than three months later, they are wiping out more peple again across the usa. They are not making more jobs at all. in fact, all of the hiring is going on on in costa rica. That's where all of our american jobs are going. I'm glad I left that dump.

[Big Bob]

Thank you W.. Let's have more tax cuts. That's right, you have to make money for that crap to work. IF that argument stood the test of time, the bush tax cut would be putting people to work right now because "rich" people would have to spend their extra cash. What about those pesky mexicans. Doing work that no one wants to due. You do not hear that anymore either!! Thanks for the ride Neo-cons!!!!!

[Tramor]

Again I ask why the Times and its readers don't object when Deputy Mayor Davis is being paid his $120,000 salary from St. Petersburg, his retirement from being Police Chief, and his salary as a professor at USF! Can't we do without three Deputy Mayors - especially one that doesn't even dress up for work, doesn't use city email, and drives around town visiting friends instead of really working.

[lonewolf]

Just a tip of the iceberg. What is really going to be tragic is when more and more of the populus cannot pay the outrageous Progress Energy increases to fund some potential Nuclear plants. Call you legislature and convince to repeal this cowardly provision for the customer to pay before building. Unemployment and unsustainable electric bills, a bad combination for this state.

[Candi]

Many that think they have a job that is neaver going to go under please think again, and prepare yourself before hand. I think it is a shame for some to laugh at are homeless situation for any one no matter what you have today, can become homeless in the near future. So please have compassion for the one's that struggel every day and wonder were there going to lay there head at night. We are all Gods children and as I say any one can loose it all in months to come. Pray for all that they have a roof over there head and food for there children, for they are blessed. Who really knows what person or family will have hardships tomarrow. :(

[Steve O'Neal]

I had to call my mortgage co the other day, Countrywide, owned by Bank of Amemerica. It was Friday, the same day BOA was receceiving another 30+ BILLION of bailout money. After about 5 minutes of electronic phone voices, I finally got through to a live person. IN INDIA!

[Steve O'Neal]

Meant America. It's early and I haven't that 1st cup of coffee yet.

[JAMES B. JOHNSON]

The situation is worse than they figure since they dont count workers who are 'fired' so the employer avoids paying unemployment compensation.

Unemployment is probably 2x what they say.

[Dave]

And the more mergers, the fewer jobs. Fewer jobs, more foreclosures. Down we go thanks to corporate greed and irresponsibility.