Florida cities flattened in Milken Institute's annual 'Best Performers' review

Wake up and good morning. Even as the Pew Center for the States warns Florida is in a sorry fiscal state... even as we learn weak job prospects in Tampa Bay are better than other parts of Florida... here comes the annual Milken Institute report of the nation's Best Performing Cities: Where America's Jobs are Created and Sustained. And Florida's cities (that's Tampa in this Terry Tomalin photo) get flattened as if hit by a steamroller.

If the report finds Texas dominating the best performers (buoyed by the oil industry and only a modest run-up in home prices), guess which state hogs the worst performing list? You betcha. Here's what the Milken report, which analyzed 200 cities, says of Florida:

"One glance at the list of metros recording the biggest declines reveals the extent of the housing bust in Florida. Twelve of the twenty metros experiencing the biggest declines were in Florida. Much of the economic growth through mid-decade in these metros was driven by residential and commercial construction activity, and this sector has ground to a halt. Several of these metros are also dependent on travel and tourism, which plunged late last year.

"The dubious distinction of posting the biggest decline goes to Pensacola–Ferry Pass–Brent, Florida. Pensacola is the poster child for the factors behind the decline: a housing bust combined with a rapid deterioration in travel and tourism. Its professional and business services employment also took a dramatic hit."

It's not only that Florida cities ranked low but fell so dramatically in just the past year. Note that Tampa Bay (that's St. Petersburg in the aerial shot) fell 89 spots in the ranks in one year, 5th worst. Makes you wonder, given Texas's performance, if this will be more fodder for the "Let's drill of Florida's coasts" advocates. Here are the biggest decliners:

  ...............................................  2009 Rank   2008 Rank  Decline
1. Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL...157 .............33..............-124
2. Merced, CA.................................184..............73..............-111
3. Jacksonville, FL...........................141..............39..............-102
4. Myrtle Beach area, SC.................120..............19..............-101
5. Tampa Bay area, FL..................169..............80...............-89
6. Orlando-Kissimmee, FL..................99..............11...............-88
7. Boise City-Nampa, ID....................114.............27...............-87
8. Clarksville, TN-KY........................ 136.............51...............-85
9. Bradenton-Sarasota-Venice, FL.....176.............97...............-79
10. Nashville area, TN.........................98.............22...............-76
11. Ocala, FL....................................104............30...............-74
12. Port St. Lucie, FL........................150.............78...............-72
13. Naples-Marco Island, FL...............155.............83..............-72
14, Fort Lauderdale area, FL.............. 131.............61..............-70
15. Daytona Beach area, FL.............. 162.............92..............-70
16. West Palm Beach area, FL...........175............105..............-70
17. Fresno, CA..................................115..............47..............-68
18. Montgomery, AL..........................102..............38...............-64
19. Stockton, CA...............................166............103...............-63
20. Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, FL....179.............117...............-62

So who's tops? Here's the 2009 top 10 performers (with 2008 rankings):

1. Austin-Round Rock, TX (4)
2. Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood, TX (13)
3. Salt Lake City, UT (3)
4. McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX (7)
5. Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX (16)
6. Durham, NC (21)
7. Olympia, WA (9)
8. Huntsville, AL (5)
9. Lafayette, LA (14)
10. Raleigh-Cary, NC (2)

Here's the full report. And here's an interactive Web site that let's you explore the data more easily.

-- Robert Trigaux, Times Business Columnist

 

Too like California? Florida among states with fiscal woes that could hurt U.S., says Pew study

Some of the same pressures that have pushed California toward economic disaster are wreaking havoc in Florida and eight other states, with "potentially damaging consequences" for the entire country. So says a new report released today by the Pew Center on the States. In addition to Florida, Arizona, Illinois, Michigan, Nevada, New Jersey, Oregon, Rhode Island and Wisconsin join California as the 10 most troubled states, according to Pew’s analysis called Beyond California: States in Fiscal Peril. Here is the full report.

Specifically, Florida, Michigan, Nevada and Oregon are struggling in part because their economies have depended so heavily on particular industries -- in Florida's case, real estate and tourism. States the Pew analysis:

 "This reliance on a sector may have paid off in times past, but it put these states at greater risk when the recession hit. States cannot choose their natural resources, of course, but they can budget and manage for additional volatility that can result from dependence on a particular sector. States increasingly are seeking to diversify their economies."

The Pew analysis notes the following weaknesses in Florida's fiscal status:

1, For the first times since World War 2, Florida's population is shrinking-- "a disturbing trend for a state that has built its economy, and structured its state budget, on the assumption that throngs of new residents will move to its sunny shores each year."

2. The recession has reversed Florida's growth. No. 2 among states in economic growth in 2005, it ranked 48th in 2008.

3. Though Florida enjoyed some of the biggest gains in jobs just three years ago, its current unemployment rate of 11.0  percent puts Florida among states with the highest jobless rates in the country.

4. The boom in property prices almost doubled tax revenues in many Florida cities between 2001 and 2006, swelling state and local budgets. "Now Florida's governments face significant problems raising enough revenue to cover expenses," the Pew report says. The state is bracing for a deficit as high as $2.6 billion in fiscal 2011.

Concludes the report  about Florida: "This is uncharted territory for a state whose conservative budgeting practices, constitutionally required reserves and go-go-economy largely have kept it out of fiscal trouble for the better half of the past century."

The bigger picture? The budget troubles of Florida and these other nine states can have significant repercussions for their residents, Pew says. Higher taxes or fees; layoffs or furloughs of state workers; longer waits for public services; more crowded classrooms; higher college tuition and less support for the poor or unemployed: All are starting to crop up in Florida.

These budget troubles also pose challenges for the nation as a whole, says Pew:

"Together, the 10 states account for more than one-third of America’s population and economic output. And actions taken by state governments to balance their budgets—such as tax increases and drastic spending cuts—can slow down the country’s recovery."

The Pew Center on the States will discuss this report more in depth this afternoon. We'll offer the highlights of that conversation shortly.

-- Robert Trigaux, Times Business Columnist

In evolving video game world, Orlando's Electronic Arts pressed to reinvent itself

Wake up and good morning. It seemed only yesterday that California video game phenom Electronic Arts had announced an expansion to Orlando. Central Florida was abuzz as the next great hub of cutting edge game entertainment on the east coast and the University of Central Florida had teamed up in 2004 with Electronic Arts to kick off a graduate program in video game development at the UCF Center for Emerging Media.

That dream -- explored here in a 2005 column -- has not disappeared but it's sobering up from the early euphoria.

Despite its local production of video game blockbusters Madden Football and Tiger Woods PGA  Tour Golf, Electronic Arts laid off 51 employees -- 8.5 percent of its 600 workers-- at its Tiburon studio in Maitland this week as part of a companywide cost-cutting plan, company officials said. The video-game developer said it expects to save at least $100 million a year by cutting 1,500 jobs by the end of March, closing some studios, and restructuring its businesses to focus on its most-profitable games and on the growing mobile- and online-gaming markets, the Orlando Sentinel reports. Here's the full story.

This posting is less an update on Electronic Arts but a reminder how tough it is for a company, even an Electronic Arts, to remain relevant and in the groove in such an rapidly changing world as digital entertainment. It's also a reminder to metro areas like Orlando -- and Tampa Bay as it pursues its own niche focus on industry -- how daunting it can be to choose and nurture a specific high-tech cluster whose momentum can change so quickly.

Don't count Electronic Arts out by any means. But even Phil Holt, EA Tiburon general manager in Orlando (see photo), told me in an interview and in remarks earlier this year that finding the next must-have game for the typically young and restless customer base of gamers is a perilous mission. The company's initial premise -- that gamers will sit together in one room in front of a PC or TV screen and play video game -- is so yesterday's news. Now it's global, online gaming 24/7 and your partner or challenger may just as easily be on the couch or in Singapore. And social media sites like Facebook are becoming hubs of gamers, too. Here's what Holt wrote in an e-mail this week to Orlando employees:

"The game industry is in a period of rapid change, and the pace of that change is accelerating. In order to control our own destiny and succeed in this rapidly changing environment, EA is taking bold action on costs so we can win in the future. We are not exempt from these cost actions here in Orlando and, subsequently, 51 of our colleagues will be leaving Tiburon."

How does Electronic Arts keep up with that tsunami of change? And how does Orlando and UCF make sure they are backing the right horse and teaching the right stuff? Nobody knows for sure, and that's the beauty and inherent risk of trying to become a global player. Go Orlando!

-- Robert Trigaux, Times Business Columnist

St. Joe-subsidized airport sets stage for next wave of Panhandle development

Update mid morning: St. Joe Co. released its third quarter earnings, reporting a loss of $14.4 million compared to a loss of $19.2 million for the third quarter of 2008. More  details here.

Wake up and good morning. Florida real estate giant St. Joe Co. often gets likened to a feudal lord, at least in the state's Panhandle where the company's concentration of acreage, development history and astonishing political clout seems to let the firm pretty much do what it wants.

The nasty recession has stalled its pace of development, mostly upscale beachfront projects west of Tallahassee and east of Pensacola. But the delays won't last. The latest stimulus to the Panhandle -- or "Florida's Great Northwest" as St. Joe publicity spinners prefer to call it -- is a new airport (see rendering of terminal) due to start operating next May, built on donated St. Joe land. It is the fruition of years of lobbying by the Jacksonville-based company. The coup de grace: St. Joe convincing Southwest Airlines to fly in and out of the new Bay County airport when it opens, with St. Joe covering any Southwest losses there for the first three years. Here are more details on the joint venture.

The airport replaces a smaller one, which means a significant jet service will be able to draw tourists and, St. Joe hopes, vacation home hunters and retirees more conveniently from a greater swath of the Midwest and Southeast.

The airport (see aerial photo) has been a fundamental strategy for St. Joe, in effect introducing a firehose of new people to the Panhandle instead of the trickling garden hose provided by the smaller Panama City area airport.

A new AP story here catches us up on St. Joe and its Panhandle plans. In the story, St. Joe CEO Britton Greene says the company has a chance to reshape Florida by creating new towns, resorts, shopping centers, hotels and highways in places that haven't experienced much more than a few timber mills for generations until now. St. Joe owns 580,000 acres. Says Greene:

"Because this part of the state is so new and so green we have the opportunity to be one of the leaders in job growth. We don't have the massive vacant real estate overhang that they have in other parts of the state."

Not to mention that the Panhandle boasts some counties with the lowest unemployment rates (one under 6 percent) in the state. Not a bad base to build upon.

-- Robert Trigaux, Times Business Columnist

Can Florida nurture (and retain) talent in state to make it a global competitor?

Wake up and good morning. Every political and economic development leader here at Monday's "Talent Summit" organized by the Florida Chamber of Commerce insists Florida's economy is in an historic transition from old school tourism and agriculture to new age biotech and green energy. The difference is old school requires workers with modest educations and pays below-average wages; new age industries require more sophisticated employees with better training who then earn above-average pay.

The next wave can happen, politicians and business leaders insist, as long as Florida puts a premium on "talent" and by that they mostly mean upgrading Florida's educational system. "As the economy transitions," says Florida Chamber CEO Mark Wilson (in photo), "talent is the new economic currency around the world."

Adds Florida Lieutenant Gov. Jeff Kottkamp, who spoke Monday: "A transformation is taking place in Florida." he told the audience, "Florida will experience a boom such as it's never seen before."

Hey, I'm all for economic transitions and transformations. Nobody's a bigger fan of the idea of raising Florida's educational bar, which at this point a Florida alligator could not limbo under. But I'm still left with that uneasy feeling that our Tallahassee politicians lack the will and discipline to make it happen. And, as was noted repeatedly here Monday by attendees, selling Florida residents (who will continue to be dominated by people over age 60) on the value of paying higher taxes for better schools is clearly an uphill battle.

Here are the five best insights expressed at Monday's Talent Summit:

* Jeff Lyash, Progress Energy executive (in second photo): Florida needs to "accelerate" its upgrading of the state educational system with an emphasis on math and science. "My concern is that we're moving too slow."

* Mark Wilson, Florida Chamber of Commerce CEO: Once considered a cheap state, Florida is now the 19th most expensive state in the country.

* Will Holcombe, chancellor of the "Florida College System" formerly known as the Community College System: 67 percent of Florida high school graduates are now enrolled in some type of postsecondary education, up from 50 percent a decade ago. "That's progress. Just not enough."

* Frank Brogan, recently named chancellor of the state university system: In 1994, Florida's educational system was often compared with (those of) third world nations.

* Jeff Kottkamp, lieutenant governor: Virgin Atlantic chose New Mexico as the site of its fledgling space tourism business, but Kottkamp's confident Florida can lure them here.

The Talent Summit was day one of a series in the Chamber's "Future of Florida" forums. Tuesday is dedicated to the "State of the State" with a focus on more of the six economic drivers -- talent, innovation, infrastructure, business climate, civic and government systems and quality of life -- that underpin Florida going forward.

-- Robert Trigaux, Times Business Columnist

Who's 'smartest' metro area in America? Would Einstein choose to live in Florida?

Would Einstein live here? Tampa Bay may not be Braintrust Central, but a new and only slightly-tongue-in-cheek ranking of the "smartest" major metro areas puts Tampa-St. Pete-Clearwater well down the list. To No. 33, in fact.

The Daily Beast Web site decided to rank the relative intelligence of the top 55 American population hubs, from first-to-worst. The site was pretty scientific, using census data, educational attainment, the relative number of nonfiction books (assuming those of higher intelligence read more of these) versus fiction books and higher education opportunities in each area. Even political engagement, apparently another measure of intelligence, was measured. More on the criteria here.

So, who's smartest? Raleigh-Durham, N.C. -- home to Duke, Research Triangle and even... Progress Energy. Who brought up the caboose of the intelligence train? Fresno, Calif., was No. 55 and, the Daily Beast says, "It wasn't even close." Some of the numbers:

* The top 10 in smarts:1) Raleigh-Durham, N.C.; 2) San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose; 3) Boston; 4) Minneapolis-St. Paul; 5) Denver; 6) Hartford-New Haven, Conn.; 7) Seattle-Tacoma tied with Washington, D.C.; 9) Portland, Ore., and 10) Baltimore.

* The last five in smarts,starting with the dumbest: 55) Fresno, Calif.; 54) Las Vegas; 53) San Antonio, Tex.; 52) Louisville, and 51) Memphis.

* Smartest metro areas in Florida: 31) West Palm Beach, tied with Cleveland; 33) Tampa Bay; 37) Jacksonville, tied with Greensboro, N.C.; 39) Miami, and at 46) Orlando, tied with Houston.

Is this for real? There's something definitely to this, I believe, though living in Florida is not exactly a bastion of intellectual prowess. Still, the state is trying harder. Says the Daily Beast:

"Collective brainpower. More than sports prowess or political leanings or wealth or cultural accomplishments, this is the quintessential bragging point of a metropolitan area, the civic version of a playground taunt: I’m smart, you’re not."

-- Robert Trigaux, Times Business Columnist   

Florida shut out of list of next wave of predicted metro hotspots for young workers

Wake up and good morning. It seems less important to us now -- this race among metro areas to become cool destination magnets for young, creative people. Here in Tampa Bay and Florida, we're more absorbed in the more immediate, survival task of finding jobs for anyone to do anything.

Still, once the dust clears economically, we will wish again that Tampa Bay had a stronger reputation as a "Go To" place for young, sharp and well educated workers. In the long run, without those workers adding to the Tampa Bay area, we're not going to raise the bar on quality jobs. (Photo by tbt: Emerge Tampa, a networking group for young area business people, holds one of its gatherings at Channelside.)

That's the scene setter for an interesting story and survey in today's Wall Street Journal. The newspaper asked six experts to rank the ten U.S. cities they see as most likely to emerge as "youth magnet" cities after the recession. Hint: None of the ten are in Florida (no surprise there given our economy). In fact, only one of the ten is even in the southeastern United States. Even Atlanta failed to make the list. That's not a good sign at all.

You're probably familiar with some of these experts if you read this blog regularly or pay attention to demographic stories concerning the nation and Florida. The panelists range from Richard Florida (Tampa Bay knows him well since he came here in 2003 and sparked the Creative TampaBay movement); William Frey of Brookings who's the guru of population trends and earlier this year called Florida's dramatic slowdown in new arrivals the end of a "migration bubble"; Milken Institute director of regional economics Ross Devol, who in 2002 said an inadequate supply of housing "makes it impossible to have a housing bubble"; along with Moody's Economy.com Steve Cochrane, University of Maryland senior lecturer Rachel Franklin and University of Arizona professor David Plane.

So which cities did these experts predict as the next coolest? Places they did not choose that once were in favor are Naples, Fla. (economy in shambles), Las Vegas (housing bust) and Charlotte, N.C. (bloom's off its banking rose).

Here are the experts top picks and why:

1. A tie between Seattle and Washington, D.C. Seattle still radiates a high tech, lifestyle aura and even aging Microsoft can recruit plenty of young folks. And Washington draws young people because tech services are big there, President Obama is still a youth attraction and, frankly, the federal government is hiring people that the private sector is not.

3. New York. With Wall Street reeling, how can this be? Because younger, recession-wary people want bigger cities where they are less vulnerable to job cuts (or at least have better chances to find another if they do lose a job). Still, it costs big bucks to live in New York. On a personal note, I know of a number of young people who have flocked to New York -- even Manhattan -- and are either sharing apartments with multiple friends to cut costs or, if they are lucky, continue to be subsidized by Mom and Dad.

4. Portland, Ore. So how can a metro area smaller than Tampa Bay with an equally appalling unemployment rate of 11.4 percent (Tampa Bay's is 11.3 percent) rank so high on the hipness meter?  Because its reputation for smart growth, mass transit and outdoor and quirky lifestyle outweighs its troubled economy.

5. Austin, Tex. It remains a hotspot for music fans and techies, all wrapped up in a nice scale for living and a nearby University of Texas to keep minds busy.

The remaining winners, by these experts' picks, are San Jose Calif.; Denver; Durham, N.C. (the Southeast's only representative on this list); Dallas; Chicago and Boston.

There was a time in better economic days when Tampa Bay aspired to be on one of these lists as the next hot spot for migrating young hot shots. We even commissioned surveys to show us the way. I'm sure we'll start that drumbeat anew when the current economic malaise eases. But we will probably be further behind the curve of luring a fickle next generation, and presumably preoccupied by the arrival of more retiring baby boomers.

-- Robert Trigaux, Times Business Columnist

Jobs ahead? Rough declines forecast for Florida and Tampa Bay metro market

Wake up and good morning. Whoa. This is hardly how I want to start the day, and end the work week, with some nasty forecasts of more jobs to be lost in Florida and the Tampa Bay area. But better to anticipate and prepare than walk blind, right? (Photo: AP)

Job watchers at Economy.com put together employment forecasts -- we're looking ahead, not behind -- for all U.S. states and metro areas. The results appear in today's USA Today. And those results are most sobering for our state and region.

Here's the rough news. Looking ahead one year, Economy.com forecasts a 2.4 percent decline in employment in Florida. Only Michigan and Nevada are expected to have greater declines (2.6 percent each) while the U.S. average decline in the next year is 1.3 percent.

Let's look closer. Of all larger metro areas nationwide, Tampa Bay ranks No. 3 in the Economy.com forecast of greatest declines in employment in the coming year: down 4.1 percent. That's greater than Miami (- 3.9 percent), Jacksonville (-3.8 percent), Vero Beach (-3.7 percent), West Palm Beach (-3.4 percent) Fort Lauderdale (-3.3 percent) and Orlando (-3.0 percent) -- though you can see how, cumulatively, Florida's not looking too good in the coming year.

Tampa Bay was behind only two metro areas nationwide in anticipated job loss: Elkhart, Ind. (-5.2 percent) and Sheboygan, Wis. (-4.5 percent) -- both significantly smaller metro areas than Tampa Bay.

Yes, these are just informed forecasts and not set in stone. But it's a cautionary warning that Florida and Tampa Bay are not poised for any near-term rebound. Plan accordingly.

-- Robert Trigaux, Times Business Columnist

Online social media marketing: Don't make people come to you, go where they hang out

Wake up and good morning. The marketing panel last night before a packed room of 300 at Tampa's Quorum Hotel was a great primer about how diverse companies are trying to market themselves online. But it should have been called: Everything You Wanted To Know About Online Social Media... But Were Afraid To Ask.

Pretty cool people talking about pretty cool and quickly morphing ways for companies and businesses to be a compelling piece of the online social world. We're talking about businesses taking themselves where hundreds of millions of people spend online time: Facebook, YouTube, Google, Twitter and LinkedIn, and company blogs like GM's FastLane just to name a few.

Panelists ranged from Christopher Barger (see photo), director of global social media at General Motors (how to reintroduce GM after bankruptcy) and Diane Chang of Google (how to make "Search" functions work for you) and to Shiven Ramji, vp of online solutions at Nielsen Media Research (if you can't measure your online work, why bother?) to our own local and nonprofit Florida Aquarium pr/marketing chief Tom Wagner (ways to get folks online to help market your cool ocean stuff for free). The event was held by the Tampa Bay Technology Forum. Kevin Hourigan of Tampa's Bayshore Solutions moderated the panel and reminded us that Facebook alone has 300 million users (and rising) -- which is about the size of the entire U.S. population.

Let's distill a couple hours of  good commentary and corporate strategy:

* Barger: He has to immerse GM into the online world following the biggest corporate bankruptcy in history. His No. 1 suggestion? Listen. Don't lecture and don't just throw ads at people online. Control of the GM brand, like all brands, is shifting from the marketer to the public, Barger says. "They are more in control of GM's brand than I am." Go outside the box (meaning GM's own Web site and even GM blogs), he advises. "Go where the conversations are happening. Don't wait." The ability online to reach individual people, not just GM customers but its critics, really matters -- and it's possible with interaction on social media sites.

* Chang: She characterized the online world as one of "instant gratification" in which people can blog and tweet their personal views, buy stuff they want, get information they need, listen to music they like and watch movies. And it is quickly migrating away from the stationary PC to mobile devices like the iPhone and Razr. Her advice to companies? Always be "on" so people can access what you offer at any time in any way. And "experiment," she says, but always be able to measure the success of those efforts.

* Ramji: Know your online audience. Facebook may be dominated by younger users, but older adults now are its fastest growing segment, he says. As for Twitter, "teens do not tweet" so that's not the platform to reach them. Pay attention to the trend and opportunity of more people watching TV and being online at the same time. Being from Nielsen, he was the panelist's reality check. If you cannot measure your success online, how do you know anything is working?

* Wagner: Tampa's Florida Aquarium has no marketing budget (yet) for online social networks but that does not stop Wagner. He listened and learned online for awhile then peppered Facebook and Twitter with fun facts about the ocean with links to the Aquarium. Then, despite resistance from above, he organized a "tweet-up"(a gathering of Twitter users) with free admission at the Florida Aquarium so people could experience various exhibits. It was not perfect but everyone who came put their views on Twitter. And the ten people with the greatest number of Twitter followers reached a potential audience of 125,000. Not bad for no online marketing budget.

I've only scratched the surface of rich ideas of a quality panel. As was admitted throughout the evening, what they said Wednesday in Tampa will become outdated by the speed of digital change very soon. But you gotta start somewhere.

-- Robert Trigaux, Times Business Columnist 

Census bureau: Florida's median income suffers 3.9% decline, biggest drop in U.S. in 2008

Wake up and hold on to your wallet.

New census data show Florida's median annual income fell by $1,860 to $47,800 in 2008 from 2007.

That's a 3.9 percent decline and is the steepest decline in the nation, an unfortunate No. 1 spot for Florida reflecting how badly the recession has damaged the Sunshine State and how much harder it will be to crawl back to a more competitive status.

This will come as no surprise to many Floridians who have taken to emailing me about their appalling wages and the lower pay they now receive after having lost one decent job and being forced (if they are lucky) in such a job-lean time to find a lesser position.

The photo above was taken Monday at the job fair held at the Coliseum in St. Petersburg by St. Petersburg Times photographer Kathleen Flynn. These hopeful job hunters wait in line to talk to a representative from Kelly Services. Malay Saycocie (third in line clutching the blue folder) previously worked in an assembly line for about 20 years up North making $17 a hour. Here, she was only able to find temp work for $8 an hour. There were more than 30 employers at the job fair.

Florida's leading the nation in falling median income comes from the Census Bureau's American Community Survey and from analysis by Brookings Institution demographer William Frey. Nationally, the median annual income fell in 27 states. As a whole, U.S. income fell 1.2 percent in 2008 from 2007. Find more information in this Wall Street Journal story. Here are the top income-losing states in '08 from '07:

* Florida, $47,800, down 3.9 percent

* Montana, $43,654, down 3.0 percent.

* Indiana, $47,966, down 2.8 percent.

* Maine, $46,581, down 2.5 percent.

* Arkansas, $38,815, down 2.1 percent.

* California, $61,021, down 2.0 percent.

* United States, $52,029, down 1.2 percent.

-- Robert Trigaux, Times Business Columnist